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PMI: Halvering af vækst til 0,3 % i 2. kvartal i Eurozone

Morten W. Langer

torsdag 23. juni 2016 kl. 10:48

PMI for Eurozonen fra Markit- læs hele meddelelsen her

Euro area business activity growth slowed slightly in June, according to the Markit Eurozone Flash PMI® , which edged down to its lowest level since January of last year. The PMI fell from 53.1 in May to 52.8, rounding off the worst calendar quarter since the fourth quarter of 2014 amid signs of political and economic uncertainty dampening business activity.

Moderate growth was recorded in both the manufacturing and service sectors, though an acceleration in the rate of goods production, to the best seen so far this year, was offset by a weakened pace of expansion in services, the slowest for 18 months. Growth of new orders likewise accelerated in manufacturing, buoyed by the best export performance since December, but slowed in services.

Overall growth of new business across both sectors consequently inched only slightly higher, remaining one of the weakest seen over the past year-and-a-half. Backlogs of work nevertheless rose to the greatest extent seen over the past nine months, prompting firms to take on additional staff at the fastest rate seen so far this year in order to expand capacity to meet demand. Stronger rates of job creation were seen in both manufacturing and services.

Markit Eurozone PMI and GDP Sales in both manufacturing and services were once again partly driven by discounting, however. Prices charged for goods and services fell on average in June, sustaining the trend of downward price pressures recorded by the survey almost continuously since late-2011. Selling prices were cut despite an increase in firms’ costs, which rose at the fastest rate for 11 months.

Higher costs were most prevalent in the services sector, linked in many cases to the recent improvement in oil prices feeding through to fuel prices, but also to upward wage pressures. Manufacturing input costs continued to fall, though the decline was the smallest since last August

Comment Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said: “June’s survey data point to steady though disappointingly lacklustre economic growth. Rising political uncertainty appears to have caused the pace of expansion to weaken slightly and business confidence about the outlook to deteriorate. “The second quarter is therefore likely to see economic growth slacken from the solid 0.6% expansion seen in the opening quarter of the year to around 0.3%. “The good news is that demand is growing at a sufficiently strong pace to sustain reasonably robust hiring, but it’s not strong enough to generate inflationary pressures. Firms are having to soak up higher costs, notably for fuel and labour, but cut their own selling prices amid intense competition. “A solid performance from Germany’s manufacturing economy looks to have helped drive a solid 0.4% expansion of the currency area’s single largest member state in the second quarter, but business activity in France remains in a far more fragile state and confidence has deteriorated further.”

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