Fra factset:
Will S&P 500 Companies With Higher Global Exposure See Lower Earnings Growth in Q3?
“Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term…The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad.”
– FOMC (Sep. 17) As the Federal Reserve discussed yesterday, there continue to be concerns in the market about the impact of lower global economic growth on the U.S. economy.
Thus, there also concerns in the market about the impact of lower global economic growth and the impact of the stronger U.S. dollar (relative to last year) on the sales and earnings of companies in the S&P 500. Are companies in the S&P 500 with more global exposure expected to report weaker sales and earnings growth relative to companies in the index with less global exposure?
The answer is yes. FactSet Geographic Revenue Exposure data (based on the most recently reported fiscal year data for each company in the index) can be used to analyze global sales exposure for all the companies in the S&P 500. For this particular analysis, the index was divided into two groups: companies that generate more than 50% of sales inside the U.S. (less global exposure) and companies that generate less than 50% of sales inside the U.S. (more global exposure).
Aggregate earnings and revenue growth rates were then calculated based on these two groups. The results are listed below. The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 for Q3 2015 is -4.4%. For companies that generate more than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the estimated earnings growth rate is 3.1%. For companies that generate less than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the estimated earnings decline is -14.1%. The estimated sales decline for the S&P 500 for Q3 2015 is -2.9%.
For companies that generate more than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the estimated sales growth rate is 1.4%. For companies that generate less than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the estimated sales decline is -12.1%. For the third quarter, the Energy sector is expected to be the largest contributor to the projected yearover-year declines in both earnings and revenues, as the price of crude oil is well below year-ago levels.
If the Energy sector is excluded from the analysis, are companies in the S&P 500 (ex-Energy) with more global exposure still expected to report weaker sales and earnings growth relative to companies (exEnergy) in the index with less global exposure? The answer is still yes.
The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 (ex-Energy) for Q3 2015 is 3.0%. For companies (exEnergy) that generate more than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the estimated earnings growth rate is 8.8%.
For companies (ex-Energy) that generate less than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the estimated earnings decline is -4.9%. The estimated sales growth rate for the S&P 500 (ex-Energy) for Q3 2015 is 2.6%. For companies (exEnergy) that generate more than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the estimated sales growth rate is 5.3%.
For companies (ex-Energy) that generate less than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the estimated sales decline is -3.9%. Thus, S&P 500 companies with higher global exposure are projected to reported lower earnings growth and lower revenue growth relative to S&P 500 companies with lower global exposure. When excluding the Energy sector from the analysis, the conclusions remain the same
