Fra analysefirmaet Factset for US selskaber: Flere selskaber end normalt har nedjusteret deres Q4-forventning, men det er baseret på et meget lille antal selskaber. Analytikerne har meget optimistiske forventninger til overskudsfremgang i Q4-2014 og Q1-2015, baseret især på øget lønsomhed og ikke så meget på salgsvækst
Q4 Earnings Guidance: Negative Guidance (75%) Above Average At this point in time, 13 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for the fourth quarter. Of these 13 companies, 10 have issued negative EPS guidance and 3 have issued positive EPS guidance. Thus, the percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance to date for the third quarter is 77% (10 out of 13). This percentage is above the 5-year average of 67%.
Higher Net Margins Projected for Q414 – Q215
While the blended earnings growth rate for Q3 2014 is 5.1%, analysts do expect earnings growth for the S&P 500 to be much higher through the middle of 2015. For Q4 2014, Q1 2015, and Q2 2015, analysts are predicting earnings growth rates of 7.5%, 8.9%, and 10.1%, respectively. For all of 2014, the projected earnings growth rate is 6.6%. For all of 2015, the projected earnings growth rate is 11.1%. However, revenue growth is not expected to improve dramatically over the next three quarters relative to expectations for Q3. The blended revenue growth rate for Q3 2014 is 3.6%. For Q4 2014, Q1 2015, and Q2 2015, analysts are predicting revenue growth rates of 3.0%, 3.7%, and 3.1%. For all of 2014, the projected revenue growth rate is 3.9%. For all of 2015, the projected revenue growth rate is 4.1%. Given this divergence in expected earnings and revenue growth over the next few quarters, analysts are expecting profit margins to continue to expand into 2015. Using the bottom-up sales-per-share (SPS) and earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates for the S&P 500 as proxies for expected sales and earnings for the index over the next few quarters, profit margin estimates can be calculated by dividing the expected EPS by the expected SPS for each quarter. Using this methodology, the estimated net profit margins for Q4 2014, Q1 2015, and Q2 2015 are 10.4%, 10.5%, and 10.8%. These numbers are above the estimated net profit margin for Q3 2014 (9.9%), and are also well above the average net profit margin of 9.3% recorded over the past four years.
Valuation: Forward P/E Ratio is 14.4, still above the 10-Year Average (14.1)
The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is 14.4. This P/E ratio is based on Thursday’s closing price (1862.76) and forward 12-month EPS estimate ($129.31).
