Dry Bulk analyse fra JP Morgan
Budskaber blandt andet-
> Forward rater peger opad senere på året
> Udsigt til relativt færre nybygninger i 2015 end tidligere år
Global bulk shipping capacity rose 0.7% m/m to 761.3MM dwt as at Feb 1. This is the 24th month of a ≤1% m/m rise and implies 8.3% growth annualized, ahead of our 6.3% net capacity growth forecast but below the 11% growth implied by the vessel orderbook at the start of 2015. Scrapping removed 28 ships and 2.3MM dwt in Jan 2015 (or c.3.6% of capacity annualized). The dry bulk shipping sector recovery could be delayed till late 2015/early 2016 but we see opportunities to buy oversold stocks ahead of any pick-up in demand. Top picks: MOL (0.7x P/B, 67% < historical average valuation), PacBasin (0.6x P/B, 49% below).
