Ugens vigtigste begivenheder: retailsalg og CPI på fredag

This week’s post payrolls data calendar is pretty modest: the US reports consumer credit today, small business optimism tomorrow, but attention is reserved for CPI and retail sales on Friday.

Elsewhere around the globe, SocGen summarizes that we get Eurozone consumer and business confidence data today (it hit a 2 decade high), unemployment tomorrow the ECB ‘account’ on Thursday; The UK has a cabinet re-shuffle today, industrial production tomorrow and trade on Wednesday; Chinese CPI data are due Wednesday.

In Euro area, the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 8.7% (8.8% prev), and German GDP (Thurs) to rise 2.6% (prev 1.9%). In UK, we forecast Industrial Production on Wed to be1.8% (3.6%, prev) and Manufacturing Production to be 2.8% (3.9% prev). We also have Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting on Tues, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and Bank of England Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys on Thurs.

In China, we have producer and consumer price index (Wed). Banks expects CPI inflation to inch up to 1.9% yoy in Dec from 1.7% in Nov. PPI inflation has likely eased to 4.8% in Dec from 5.8% in Nov, mainly due to a higher comparison base last year.

In US, core CPI is expected to grow 0.2% mom in Dec, leaving yoy inflation at 1.7% on Fri. Market consensus for retail sales is a 0.40% increase vs the previous release of 0.80%. We will hear from a number of Fed speakers, including NY Fed Pres Dudley on Thurs.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid breaks down key events day by day:

• Monday: November factory orders will be out as this note hits inboxes. Then we get a range of confidence indicators for the Eurozone, including the January Sentix investor confidence along with the December economic, consumer and business confidence stats. Elsewhere, the Eurozone’s retail sales and the UK’s December Halifax house price index are due. Over in the US, the November consumer credit numbers are also due. Onto other events, the Fed’s Williams and Rosengren speak at an Inflation targeting conference, while the Fed’s Bostic will also speak on monetary policy and the US economic outlook. Elsewhere, France’s President Macron arrives in China today for a three day state visit.
• Tuesday: The November unemployment rate for the Eurozone and Italy are due, along with Germany’s IP. Then the trade and current account balance stats for France and Germany are also due. Over in the US, there is the December NFIB small business optimism index and JOLTS job openings. Onto other events, the Fed’s Kashkari speaks at a moderated panel. Elsewhere, North and South Korean delegates will meet for the first time since 2015.
• Wednesday: In early morning, China’s December CPI and PPI are due. The November IP and manufacturing production for the UK and France are also due, followed by the UK’s November trade balance. Over in the US, there is the November wholesale inventories along with December stats on exports and imports. Onto other events, the Fed’s Evans discusses the economy and policy outlook. Elsewhere, the US Chamber of Commerce CEO Donohue will deliver his annual address and the South Korean President will host a New Year’s news conference.
• Thursday: The Eurozone’s November IP and Italy’s retail sales are due, along with the December reading for the Bank of France industrial sentiment index. Over in the US, there is the December PPI as well as the weekly initial jobless and continuing claims. Onto other events, the minutes for the ECB December meeting will be out and the Fed’s Dudley will speak on the US economic outlook. Elsewhere, the BOE will publish its 4Q credit conditions survey and China begins a three-day annual meeting to set the agenda for its anti-corruption work in 2018.
• Friday: Japan’s outright buying of foreign bonds and China’s December current account balance along with imports and exports stats will be out in early morning. In Europe, Italy’s November IP and the final reading of France’s December CPI are due. Over in the US, there is the December CPI and retail sales along with the November business inventories. Onto other events, the Bundesbank’s Weidmann and the Fed’s Rosengren will speak.  Elsewhere, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Blackrock will release its results.

Finally, here is Goldman’s take on just the US, together with consensus forecasts: The key economic releases next week are CPI and retail sales on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

Monday, January 8

• 12:40 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Bostic will give a speech on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy to the Rotary Club of Atlanta. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
• 01:35 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion on the topic “Should the Fed stick with the 2 percent inflation target or rethink it?” at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.
• 03:00 PM Consumer credit, November (consensus +$17.8bn, last +$20.5bn)
• 04:00 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Rosengren will take part in a panel titled “Next steps: Learning from the Bank of Canada” at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.

Tuesday, January 9

• 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism index, December (consensus 108.3, last 107.5)
• 09:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will take part in a moderated Q&A session at Cargill Headquarters in Wayzata, Minnesota. Audience Q&A is expected.
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, November (last 5,996k)

Wednesday, January 10

• 08:30 AM Import price index, December (consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%)
• 09:00 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Evans will discuss the economic and monetary policy outlook at a breakfast event hosted by the Lake-Forest-Lake Bluff Rotary Club.
• 09:10 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter): Dallas Fed President Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A session. Audience and media Q&A is expected.10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, November final (consensus +0.7%, last +0.7%)
• 01:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Bullard will give a speech on the US economic outlook at the Missouri Athletic Club in St. Louis.

Thursday, January 11

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, December (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); PPI ex-food and energy, December (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, December (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%): We estimate a 0.2% increase in headline PPI in December, reflecting an uptick in gasoline prices. We expect a smaller 0.1% increase in in the PPI ex-food, energy, and trade services category. In the November report, the producer price index firmed more than expected, reflecting firmness in core measures, particularly in upstream input prices.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 6 (GS 250k, consensus 248k, last 250k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended December 30 (consensus 1,920k, last 1,914k): We estimate initial jobless claims were unchanged at 250k in the week ended January 6, reflecting elevated claims in Puerto Rico and a possible boost from end-of-year seasonal volatility. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs –appear to have stabilized after rebounding in November and early December.
• 02:00 PM Monthly budget statement, December (consensus-$49.0bn, last -$138.5bn)
• 03:30 PM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President Dudley will give a speech on the U.S. economic outlook at an event hosted by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association event. Audience and media Q&A is expected.

Friday, January 12

• 8:30 AM CPI (mom), December (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.39%); Core CPI (mom), December (GS +0.22%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.12%); CPI (yoy), December (GS +2.11%, consensus +2.1%, last +2.2%); Core CPI (yoy), December (GS +1.71%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.7%): We estimate a 0.22% increase in December core CPI (mom sa), which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged at +1.7%. Our forecast reflects additional post-hurricane strength in used car prices, a rebound in lodging away from home, and a possible rebound in airfares. On the negative side, we expect imputed utilities costs to continue to weigh on the owners’ equivalent rent category. We estimate a 0.17% increase in headline CPI, reflecting higher food quotes but mixed consumer energy prices in December.
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, December (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.8%); Retail sales ex-auto, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +1.0%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.8%); Core retail sales, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.8%): We estimate core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials) rose at a firm 0.4% pace in December, reflecting indications of a solid end to the holiday shopping season. However, we also expect a partial reversal of the boost from the iPhone launch in last month’s report (iPhone X on November 3). Given the further rise in (sa) gasoline prices and the modest uptick in auto SAAR, we estimate 0.4% and 0.5% respective increases in the ex-auto and headline measures.
• 10:00 AM Business inventories, November (consensus +0.4%, last -0.1%)
• 04:15 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Rosengren will give the keynote speech at a conference on “Money, Models, and Digital Innovation” at the University of California San Diego. Audience Q&A is expected.

Source: SocGen, BofA, Deutsche, Goldman