Fra Factset, som indsamler estimater fra analytikere for deres estimater for 3. kvartals regnskaber:
The Industrials sector has witnessed the second largest decrease in expected earnings growth (to -5.8% from 0.1%) since the start of the quarter.
Overall, 53 of the 66 companies in this sector have seen EPS estimates cut during the quarter, led by Joy Global (to $0.41 from $1.05), Quanta Services (to $0.44 from $0.67), and Deere & Company. However, the downward revisions to estimates for General Electric (to $0.26 from $0.33) have been the largest contributor to the decrease in the earnings growth rate for the sector. This sector has witnessed the fifth largest drop in price (-7.8%) since June 30. The Energy sector has recorded the third largest decrease in estimated earnings growth (to -64.4% from -58.9%) since the start of the quarter.
Overall, 24 of the 40 companies in this sector have seen EPS estimates cut by 10% or more to date, led by EOG Resources (to -$0.24 from $0.03) and Baker Hughes (to -$0.10 from $0.03). However, the downward revisions to estimates for Exxon Mobil (to $0.92 from $1.04), Chevron (to $0.83 from $1.04), and ConocoPhillips (to -$0.16 from $0.20) have been the largest contributors to the increase in the projected earnings decline for the sector. This sector has also recorded the largest decline in price (-17.3%) since the start of the quarter. On the other hand, the Telecom Services sector is the only sector that seen an improvement in expected earnings growth since the start of the quarter (to 17.6% from 16.1%).
Overall, 3 of the 5 companies in this sector have seen an increase in EPS estimates to date. The upward revisions to estimates for AT&T (to $0.68 from $0.66) and Verizon (to $1.01 from $1.00) have been the largest contributors to the increase in the earnings growth rate for the sector. Despite recording the largest improvement in estimated earnings growth since June 30, the price of the Telecom Services sector has fallen by 8.1% since the start of the quarter.
EPS Estimate Cuts: Smaller Cuts to Estimates than Average to Date Downward revisions to earnings estimates in aggregate for the third quarter to date have been lower than recent averages. The percentage decline in the Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the earnings estimates for all 500 companies in the index and can be used as a proxy for the earnings for the index) since June 30 has been 3.0% (to $29.17 from $30.07). This decline in the EPS estimate for the quarter is below the trailing 1-year (-5.3%), 5-year (-3.6%), and 10-year averages (-5.1%) for the bottom-up EPS estimate for a quarter.
Guidance: Negative EPS Guidance (70%) for Q3 Below Average At this point in time, 108 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for Q3 2015. Of these 108 companies, 76 have issued negative EPS guidance and 32 have issued positive EPS guidance. Thus, the percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance to date for the third quarter is 70% (76 out of 108). This percentage is below the 5-year average of 72%. Second Consecutive Quarter of Earnings Declines Projected for Q3 (-4.5%) The estimated earnings decline for Q3 2015 is -4.5%.
If this is the final earnings decline for the quarter, it will mark the first time the index has seen two consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q2 2009 and Q3 2009. It will also mark the largest year-over-year decline in earnings since Q3 2009 (-15.5%). Four sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth in earnings, led by the Telecom Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors. Six sectors are predicted to report a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Energy and Materials sectors.
