Analytikerne forventer negativ EPS – earning per share – vækst i Q2 i fire brancher, udover energi, følgende:
> materialer
> Industri
> stabile forbrugsvarer
Analytikerne har yderligere nedjusteret deres overskudsforventninger i alle brancher de seneste måneder,undtagen i energi og telecom,
Fra Factset
Revenue Growth Not Expected to Return Until 2016 For Q2 2015, analysts are predicting year-over-year declines in earnings (-4.6%) and revenues (-4.4%).
Analysts do not currently project earnings growth to return until Q4 2015 and revenue growth to return until Q1 2016. In terms of earnings,
analysts are currently predicting a decline of 0.8% in Q3 2015, followed by growth of 4.7% in Q4 2015. In terms of revenue, analysts are currently projecting a decline of 2.5% in Q3 2015 and a decline of 0.2% in Q4 2015, followed by growth of 5.9% in Q1 2016.
For all of 2015, analysts are projecting earnings to grow by 1.6%, but revenues to decline by 1.8%. Higher Margins Projected for 2nd Half of 2015 Analysts are also expecting profit margins to continue to expand in 2015. Using the bottom-up sales-pershare (SPS) and earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates for the S&P 500 as proxies for expected sales and earnings for the index over the next few quarters, profit margin estimates can be calculated by dividing the expected EPS by the expected SPS for each quarter.
Using this methodology, the estimated net profit margins for Q2 2015 through Q4 2015 are 10.2%, 10.5%, and 10.6%. These numbers (starting in Q3 2015) are above the net profit margin for Q1 2015 (10.3%), and are also well above the average net profit margin of 9.4% recorded over the past five years. Valuation: Forward P/E Ratio is 16.8, above the 10-Year Average (14.1) The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is 16.8. At the sector level, the Energy (26.0) sector has the highest forward 12-month P/E ratio, while the Telecom Services (13.3) and Financials (13.5) sectors have the lowest forward 12-month P/E ratios. The P/E ratio of 16.8 for the index as a whole is above the prior 5-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 13.8, and above the prior 10-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.1. It is also above the forward 12-month P/E ratio of 16.7 recorded at the start of the second quarter (March 31). Since the start of the second quarter, the price of the index has increased by 2.0%, while the forward 12-month EPS estimate has increased by 1.9%. Nine of the ten sectors have forward 12-month P/E ratios that are above their 10-year averages, led by the Energy (26.0 vs. 12.5) sector. The only sector with a forward 12-month P/E ratio below the 10-year average is the Telecom Services (13.3 vs. 14.8) sector. Companies Reporting Next Week: 8 During the upcoming week, 1 S&P 500 company is scheduled to report results for the first quarter and 7 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report results for the second quarter.
