Resume af teksten:
Forhandlingerne mellem USA og Iran præger nyhedsbilledet. Iran har fremlagt nye krav, herunder ophævelse af blokader og sanktioner. Der er ingen direkte forhandlinger, men kommunikation via mellemled rapporteres. Iran nærmer sig en aftale med Oman om gennemsejlingsvilkår i Hormuzstrædet. Olieprisen er ustabil; Brent stiger til omkring $84/tønde. Trods faldende amerikansk beskæftigelse steg S&P 500 med 0,6% til en rekordhøjde. Inflation og rentesatser i Norge og USA er på dagsordenen. Kinesiske CPI og PPI faldt mere end forventet. Asiens aktiemarkeder stiger, mens Kina og Europa falder lidt. Norsk inflationstal monitoreres nøje for indikationer på rentesatser. Nordic vækstal vil blive offentligt i denne uge.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
The negotiations, or possibly the lack of negotiations, between the United States and Iran continue to dominate the news flow. Iran has presented a “new” list of demands. Tehran demands, among other things, that the United States lift the blockade of its ports, release frozen assets, remove sanctions and pay reparations for the war before the Strait of Hormuz can be fully opened. According to Iran, no negotiations are underway, but the parties are said to be communicating via proxies and Trump says that the US has stopped its attacks to create space for talks. At the same time, Iran is reportedly close to an agreement with Oman to temporarily allow ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but the scope and terms are unclear. Alleged attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen further add to the insecurity. Oil remains volatile and after Friday evening’s decline, Brent rises a couple of dollars this morning to around $84/barrel.
Markets continue to take the development calmly and supported by falling interest rates – after the weak US employment – the S&P 500 rose by 0.6% to a new all-time high on Friday. The Norwegian CPI and Norges Bank’s interest rate announcements, together with the CPI in the US, are most important in the international calendar. We expect US core inflation to rise by 0.2% in July, in line with consensus. Downside surprises in monthly core inflation have dominated since the beginning of 2025 in a way that is unprecedented for at least 25 years. This has happened despite expectations of rising inflation from Trump’s tariffs, which have so far not materialized. However, core PCE, so far the Fed’s favorite measure, has not surprised in the same way and the market continues to price in rate hikes this year.
Chinese CPI (0.5% y/y, June 1.0%) and PPI (3.5%, June 4.1%), which were presented over the weekend, fell back more than expected. Core CPI also slowed down a tenth to 0.9%. Stock markets in Asia are rising in most places, but are slightly down in China. Stock market futures are pointing sideways in the US and down a tenth in Europe.
Despite falling employment, lower unemployment contributed to a somewhat ambiguous picture of the US labour market. Employment has increased by only 20,000 per month and if the downward trend continues, the final figures may well show that employment has actually fallen. The lower unemployment rate is explained by a decline in labour force participation, while employment has had a falling trend this year, according to the household survey. Declining hourly wages reinforce the picture of a weak labour market. Yields fell a few points after Friday’s data and although the probability of a September hike is now below 50%, the market is still pricing in more than one hike before the end of the year. Read more here .
The Norwegian CPI today will be a thriller – was the big downward surprise in June a coincidence or a sign of lower inflationary pressures? Many prices with a large seasonal component pushed down inflation in June, but several of them had also been high in the spring. This is particularly true for food prices, which have consistently been higher than expected in 2025 and the first quarter of this year, with our forecast 0.5 percentage points below Norges Bank’s and a tenth below consensus. However, inflation must remain clearly lower in August to avoid an interest rate hike from Norges Bank. The market is hesitant about whether the interest rate can be raised as early as Thursday and is pricing in +6 basis points, but we maintain that September is most likely. All but one analyst in Bloomberg’s consensus also expect unchanged interest rates on Thursday.
Nordic key stories
Growth data for June presented today and on Wednesday may give some clues as to whether the strong GDP growth in the flash estimate will be revised. Our assessment is that this will not be the case, and household consumption on Wednesday in particular will be interesting after another month of strong retail sales. Tomorrow, the National Institute of Economic Research (KI) will publish a forecast update, which also gives an indication of how other analysts interpret developments in the second quarter. KI’s forecast in June was that GDP would grow by 2.2% this year, four tenths lower than our own forecast from May.
The fact that inflation in July was higher than expected for the third month in a row increases the risk of an earlier rate hike. Reduced taxes, especially food VAT, are an important explanation for the very low inflation rate, but even excluding tax changes, the CPIF excluding energy was only 1.6% year/year in July according to our preliminary calculation. The monthly changes over the past three months have been high, but the volatility is significant. If the extremely volatile prices of package and air travel are excluded, the monthly changes have been significantly lower. International travel also explains a large part of the increase in the inflation rate over the past three months (see chart below; note that international travel for July is a SEB forecast)
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/79477
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