Den italienske gældskrise er blevet kraftig forværret, og det illustreres i et stærkt voksende rente-spread. Det er nu på 265 point og nærmer sig det niveau, der i efteråret 2018 førte til en konfrontation med EU-landene om budgettet. Dt er dog lavere end under eurokrisen, hvor spreadet var på 600 point.
Uddrag fra Saxo Bank:
Saxo Sovereign CDS Monitor : Italian risk increases ahead of crucial EUCO meeting
Ahead of the crucial EUCO meeting that will take place tonight, sentiment towards Italian risk has increased with the 5-year CDS spread trading at 265bp. It is back to the level reached at the time of the budget confrontation with the EU in Autumn 2018. However, it is still much lower than during the European sovereign debt crisis when it climbed to more than 600bp before the ECB steps in in the market to stem panic.
Lower confidence is also reflected by higher pessimism among investors about Italexit. As usual, private investors are more pessimistic than institutional investors. The risk of break-up measured by Sentix as the probability the country leaves the eurozone within one year has jumped from 5% in February to 14% in March. The one-month surge is impressive, but the measure of the risk is still lower than in Spring 2018 when Italy was facing for the umpteenth time a political drama.
Overall, tensions remain contained, and the likelihood that CDS spread increases above the 300bp threshold is extremely limited due to decisive action of the ECB. The central bank is literally cleaning up all the secondary market, with a total amount of asset purchases that will surpass the 2016 record at ϵ1.1tr this year. I would bet my bonus for the year 2020 that a euro debt crisis will not happen in 2020 or in 2021.
