J.P. Morgan vurderer, at der kan blive negativ vækst i første kvartal i USA, men at der ellers ventes fornyet vækst i resten af året. Vurderingen bygger på en analyse af de forskellige elementer i den økonomiske vækst 4. kvartal, hvor forbruget stort set brød sammen i forhold til 3. kvartal. Med den forværrede coronakrise og lock downs kan det føre til negativ vækst i indeværende kvartal. Dog ser J.P. Morgan tegn på, at der kommer et opsving i investeringerne i år.
Thought of the week
The resurgent pandemic has clearly led to a slowdown in consumer activity, which should be evident in this week’s GDP report for the fourth quarter.
As shown, we now estimate growth slowed to 5.2% q/q saar as partial lockdowns and a lapse in fiscal support through most of the quarter caused consumption growth to slow considerably.
After bouncing 41% annualized in 3Q20, contributing 25 percentage points to GDP growth, we estimate consumption grew just 3.2% in 4Q20, contributing just 2.2 percentage points to growth.
While the cooling in consumer spending may be notable, other parts of the economy likely showed continued modest recovery.
We believe low interest rates and elevated cash balances allowed businesses to increase fixed investment and rebuild their inventories while the housing sector remained a bright spot, supported by low mortgage rates.
It is worth noting that slowing momentum in the fourth quarter is likely to continue into the first, potentially shifting growth negative in 1Q21.
With that said, the $900 billion fiscal stimulus passed in December, and the likelihood that the incoming administration will push through at least another $1 trillion in fiscal support in the coming months, should result in a renewed surge in growth for the rest of the year.
