JPMorgan går ind i diskussionen om vækstaktier contra valueaktier og konkluderer, at vækstaktier stadig giver det bedste afkast og bruger Tesla som et eksempel. Tesla har en næsten lige så stor markedsværdi som de seks største bilfabrikker tilsammen, selv om de producerer mange gange flere biler og investerer meget mere i udvikling.
The premium for owning the best growth companies is as high as ever
The premium for owning the best growth companies is as high as ever, while the discounts applied to out-of-favor value stocks remain stubbornly wide.
Are investors mesmerized by the growth narrative heading for a similar fate as in 2000–01, when the Nasdaq index lost 80%? Or are the structural forces at play powerful enough to support growth stock performance for years to come? It’s a subject of spirited debate.
One example illustrates the controversy: a comparison of Tesla with the six largest traditional auto manufacturers (Toyota, Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, General Motors and Ford, as ranked by market capitalization).
After a fivefold increase this year, Tesla has roughly the same market value as the big six combined (EXHIBIT 2), which this year will collectively produce 90x more cars and 45x the revenue, and will invest 40x more in research and development.
Which is the better investment? Valuation metrics based on the current business suggest that expectations for Tesla are very demanding, to say the least.
Yet many point to the extreme success of disruptors in other industries and the enormous long-term potential for Tesla to take market share (not to mention the big six’s struggles to create any shareholder value in recent years).
We see merits to both sides of the argument and good reason to keep a balanced approach to growth and value investments.
Tesla has roughly the same market value as the big six automakers combined
EXHIBIT 2: TESLA MARKET CAP VS. OTHER OEMs*
Although our investors see less potential for market gains, the opportunities for stock selection still look good. Many of our U.S. investors find opportunities in depressed consumer cyclical companies that are likely to benefit from a recovery in demand over the next year. For example, global auto production declined by 20%, inventory levels are now very low, and our analysts expect a meaningful production recovery.
We are investing in auto suppliers, semiconductor manufacturers and materials companies with exposure to an auto recovery. Housing is another theme in our portfolios. The sector benefits from both cyclical trends (economic recovery) and secular trends (home purchases by millennials), along with low inventory and very low mortgage rates.