JPMorgan: Hård nedtur og stærkere optur

Recessionen i år bliver langt værre, men også anderledes end under finanskrisen. En større kreds af sektorer rammes. Til gengæld kan genopretningen blive langt stærkere og hurtigere end efter finanskrisen, fordi erhvervslivet ikke er ramt af ubalancer.

Uddrag fra JPMorgan:

Thought of the week
Financial markets have moved swiftly, and
are now pricing in a global recession, with
the S&P 500 falling into bear market
territory and both investment grade and
high yield bond spreads widening out
significantly. While we believe a 2020
recession is likely, it should be different
than the recession triggered by the Global
Financial Crisis (GFC).

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The areas affected by
social distancing (leisure & hospitality,
retail and transportation) represent a larger
percentage of overall employment, but a
smaller share of GDP than the finance and
construction industries did during the GFC.

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That being said, a very sharp decrease in
consumer spending concentrated in the
second quarter could subsequently lead to
broader economic weakness in the third
quarter. From an earnings perspective,
industries impacted by social distancing
represent a smaller portion of overall S&P
500 earnings than financials did in 2007,
but any impact on the aggregate figures
will depend on how badly earnings from the
affected industries are impacted.

While early indications suggest that this could be
a deep recession, the recovery that could
take hold, once effective treatments and
vaccines have been created and distributed,
has the potential to be more robust than
the recovery following the GFC as neither
the economy nor financial institutions went
into this crisis suffering from major
imbalances.

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