JPMorgan vurderer, at der var en nedgang i de amerikanske virksomheders indtjening i tredje kvartal – set i forhold til andet kvartal. Delta-varianten, forsyningsvanskeligheder, højere energipriser og lønninger bider i indtjeningen. Alligevel er der sket en kraftig stigning i aktierne, udtrykt i EPS, som er nået op på 48 dollar mod 38 dollar for et år siden. JPMorgan pointerer dog, at analytikerne har en tendens til at undervurderer indtjeningen, når regnskaberne for et kvartal begynder at løbe ind. Det kan måske føre til, at EPS-tallene vil overraske.
Thought of the week
With 4.6% of market cap reporting, our current estimate for Q3 2021 S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) is $48.25 ($40.42 ex-financials). This represents EPS growth of 27.3% from a year prior, and 21.2% since 3Q19.
However, on a sequential basis, estimates point to an earnings contraction of 7.3% q/q. The projected slowdown in quartelry growth can be attributed to macro headwinds such as the spread of the delta variant, supply chain disruptions, slower economic growth and rising wages.
That said, the average price of oil increased 73.4% during the quarter and the U.S. dollar declined by 1.4%, both of which should help support earnings. At the sector level, energy, materials and industrials are projected to lead the way, while financial profits look to have declined. Health care is expected to see earnings rise 37.2% y/y, and technology and communication services should also post solid gains.
Although current estimates are showing an earnings decline relative to the second quarter, on average analysts tend to underestimate earnings by 5.3% at the start of the quarter.
As such, earnings may surprise to the upside, supporting equity markets against a backdrop of higher volatility.