Nye stridigheder mellem USA og Kina ændrer ikke ved den generelle udvikling – at Kina overhaler USA inden for de næste 13-14 år – målt i økonomiens størrelse, BNP, og ikke bare i købekraft. Konkurrencen mellem Kina og USA bliver et af de afgørende temaer i dette århundrede. Kina vil satse på at blive selvforsynende, og derfor bliver kinesiske virksomheder så vigtige, at internationale investorer må ind i de kinesiske virksomheder, også i hjemmemarkedserhvervene, skriver JPMorgan.
Thought of the week
Recently, a new round of U.S.-China disputes, focused on financial flows, technology and human rights, has raised concerns about a re-emergence of tensions between the two countries.
The U.S. administration has taken steps such as pressuring a federal pension fund not to invest in Chinese equities and imposing further restrictions on companies doing business with Huawei.
Most recently, the U.S. Senate passed the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which would require U.S.-listed foreign firms to provide audit details and certify that they are notgovernment-owned or controlled.
As for China, it approved a national security law in Hong Kong, triggering new street protests and the announcement that the U.S. administration intends to remove its special
treatment. As a result of the re-escalation of U.S.-China tensions, downside risks for
emerging markets have increased.
However, investors should recognize that the economic and political competition between the two countries will be one of the defining themes of this century.
Indeed, we expect that the size of the Chinese economy will eclipse that of the U.S. by the
mid 2030s, as shown in this week’s chart.
Moreover, the rising tensions will increase China’s desire for self-sufficiency.
For investors who want to take advantage of strong long-run Chinese growth, it will be even more important to participate in Chinese domestic companies and not only in global multinationals.