JPMorgan stiller et barsk spørgsmål: Kan vækstaktierne fastholde det ekstremt høje niveau med en P/E på 38, eller er der risiko for et dramatisk kursfald som i 2000-1? Vækstaktierne, og især high-tech, klarede sig bedst under coronakrisen, men nu er der mere fokus på valueaktier og de traditionelle sektorer. Sidst, da aktier havde en price/earning på omkring 40, var i en priode omkring 2000, og så faldt niveauet brat og lå på 20-25 indtil slutningen af 2019.
Taking stock
The premium for owning the best growth companies is as high as ever, while the discounts applied to out-of-favor value stocks remain stubbornly wide. On any metric we can find, this has been a historically challenging year for value stocks.
Meanwhile, the median forward P/E of the fastest-growing quintile of companies globally now is 38x, a level last seen in early 2000 (EXHIBIT 1).
The fastest-growing companies then and now were growing at similar rates, but they operated in very different interest rate environments. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields around 80 basis points (bps) today vs. 6%-plus at the turn of the century. For high multiple stocks with a long duration, that really matters.
Are investors mesmerized by the growth narrative heading for a similar fate as in 2000–01, when the Nasdaq index lost 80%? Or are the structural forces at play powerful enough to support growth stock performance for years to come? It’s a subject of spirited debate.
The premium for owning the best growth companies is as high as ever.
EXHIBIT 1: FORWARD PRICE-TO-EARNINGS RATIOS BY FACTOR