JPMorgan har analyseret af den virkning, som en corona-vaccine har på markedet og konkluderer, at valueaktier vil klare sig langt bedre end vækstaktierne under opturen. Denne vurdering falder i tråd med vurderingen fra Goldman Sachs. Det er især de tunge industrier, som kan se frem til kursstigninger.

Value should turn the corner

Last week, promising news around a potentially highly effective COVID-19 vaccine led to a broad style rotation in stocks, with value outperforming growth.

As the probability rises for a vaccine arriving in early 2021, investors are
considering whether value can finally outperform growth over an extended
period.

Good Judgment, a global network of professional forecasters who collaborate to
tackle forecasting questions around complex macro themes, has been polling its
members on when an effective vaccine could be broadly distributed.

Notably, these forecasts now suggest an 83% probabilityof a vaccine being distributed in 1Q21, up from 48% at the beginning of the month.

As shown in the chart, when the probability of an effective vaccine being broadly
distributed by the end of 1Q21 has increased by more than 5% w/w, on average, traditional value sectors have outperformed the broader index while growth has lagged.

Moreover, relative valuations continue to favor value over growth, and 2021 analyst estimates suggest a more robust earnings recovery among the more beaten up value sectors.

While we still prefer active stock selection across styles, we are cautiously optimistic that as vaccine prospects improve, styles, we are cautiously optimistic that as
vaccine prospects improve, value should turn the corner.