De amerikanske virksomheders indtjening pr. aktie, EPS, faldt i fjerde kvartal, mens tech- og sundhedsaktier er steget. JPMorgan mener, at de sektorer, der er haltet efter under coronakrisen, kan få en større EPS-fremgang end tech-selskaberne i år, hvor det økonomiske opsving slår igennem. Men JPMorgan peger også på, at opsvinget kan føre til voksende lønstigninger, som vil reducere virksomhedernes indtjening og dermed påvirke aktiekurserne.
Thought of the week
As the fourth quarter earnings season comes to an end, we are projecting operating earnings per share (EPS) of $35.15, down 10.3% from a year ago.
In all, 81% of companies have beaten earnings estimates, and 68% of companies have beaten revenue estimates. Technology and health care companies continue to see profits rise, with year-over-year EPS growth of 27.2% and 8.8%, respectively.
At the other end of the spectrum, energy and industrials are projected to end the quarter with significant EPS contractions, which come as no surprise given the drop in oil prices and pullback in air travel and transportation.
However, this story is evolving. Financials, which came under severe pressure in 2020, have showed signs of recovery as declining NIMs level out and credit metrics improve. Likewise, consumer discretionary is set to end 2020 on a positive note, with the sector’s EPS currently projected to grow 3.0% y/y.
Looking ahead, we expect both sectors, as well as the cyclical parts of the market more broadly, to see earnings growth outpace their growth counterparts in 2021.
That said, while an economic recovery will boost earnings in 2021, investors should recognize that an overly rapid recovery could very well lead to strong wage growth, thereby weighing on margins and profits in 2022.
