JPMorgan har sænket sin prognose for den amerikanske vækst i resten af året og næste år. Banken vurderer, at USA står over for en “blød landing”, men banken erkender, at en blød landing sjældent finder sted – eller næsten aldrig. Så afmatningen kan med andre ord blive værre. Prognosen for andet halvår lyder nu på 2,4 pct., for første halvår 2023 på 1,5 pct. og for andet halvår 2023 på 1 pct. Banken har skåret ca. et halv procentpoint af en tidligere prognose.
Uddrag fra Fidelity/Reuters:
JPMorgan cuts U.S. GDP estimates for 2022 and 2023
JPMorgan on Wednesday cut its expectation for U.S. real gross domestic product for the second half of 2022 and for 2023.
The firm’s economic and policy research department cut its second half view to 2.4% from 3% and cut its first half 2023 target to 1.5% from 2.1% and for the second half of 2023 it cut its view to 1% from 1.4%.
It said there may be enough of a growth slowdown to lead to a gradual increase in the unemployment rate later next year, helping to relieve some wage pressures that have been building.
“In short, we forecast a soft landing, but are well aware that this outcome has rarely (if ever) occurred,” according to the research led by economist Michael Feroli.
