JPMorgan hæfter sig ved, at bunden er nået, men at der også bliver store forskelle, når økonomien genoplives. Nogle sektorer får en hurtig fremgang, mens andre vil halte bagefter. Genoplivningen af økonomien bliver mere kompleks og gradvis. Derfor bliver data, der måler sektorernes aktiviteter, vigtigere end nogensinde.
Thought of the week
With “stay at home” orders across the U.S. approaching previously announced
deadlines and slowly coming to an end, investors and policymakers alike hope that
a reopening of the U.S. economy will mark the start of the recovery. However, while
turning off the economy was as easy as flipping a light switch, reopening the
economy will require the use of a dimmer, as it is a far more complex and gradual
process.
As this week’s chart shows, high frequency data can help measure economic
activity in real time. While the data broadly shows that economic activity remains
depressed and suggests that there has not been a large pick-up in economic activity
following these reopenings, it is reassuring that some of these indicators have
seemingly troughed, suggesting that barring a second wave of infections, the
worst could be behind us.
Additionally, the divergence among industries, in both the severity of declines and reopening progress, suggests not only that certain industries were hit harder than others as a result of this shutdown, but also that the reopening process will not be uniform
across industries.
Overall, we continue to believe that the economy is currently experiencing the steepest decline since World War II, and that growth will remain muted throughout the remainder of the year as businesses partially reopen.
However, we do anticipate a surge in economic growth once a vaccine or viable
treatment becomes available, which will likely be around the middle of 2021.
