Vækstaktier er steget kraftigt under coronakrisen, og det har fået mange til at spørge, om value-aktier – ja, hele ideen med value-investeringer – har fået dødsstrødet. Men JPMorgan pointerer, at den kraftige stigning i vækstaktierne især skyldes stigningen i high-tech-aktier og fremgangen i e-handel under coronakrisen, fordi forbrugerne er blevet hjemme og klaret en stor del af hverdagen online. Imens er andre sektorer, f.eks. banker og energi, stået i stampe. Når en vaccine er fundet, og hele økonomien kommer igang igen, sker der forbedringer i de sektorer, hvor value er stærke, og derfor tror JPMorgan, at valueaktier kan få et come back.
Thought of the week
After dropping -34% from peak to trough earlier this year, the S&P 500 has
recovered and hit an all-time high.
This advance has primarily been driven by a handful of growth stocks, leading many investors to wonder if value as an investment style has finally met its demise.
First, we think it is important to differentiate between investing in value as a style and value investing. That said, many investors have been asking what type of environment would support the outperformance of value relative to growth.
In general, our work suggests that value tends to outperform growth in
environments where economic growth is accelerating or inflation expectations are rising.
However, pandemic-induced shutdowns earlier this year led people to spend more time at home, accelerating trends related to technology and e-commerce, and resulting in the significant underperformance of key value sectors such as energy and financials.
Looking ahead, however, this performance gap may begin to narrow; economic growth should accelerate once a vaccine is available and a
willingness at the Fed to allow inflation to run hot would both be supportive of value.
While there is a secular theme favoring growth and a cyclical theme potentially favoring value, the years of growth outperformance have left it looking more expensive than any time since the tech bubble.
As a result, we believe that long-term investors should not underweight
value, but take a relatively balanced approach to construct diversified equity
portfolios.
