Resume af teksten:
Donald Trumps nye toldsatser på import fra over 90 lande er nu trådt i kraft og forventes at påvirke priserne for amerikanske forbrugere, når virksomheder sandsynligvis overfører omkostningerne. Den øgede told på import anslås at koste omkring 540 milliarder USD årligt, hvilket kan hæmme forbrugernes købekraft og sænke inflationen i 2026. Schweitz står over for udfordringer med øget amerikansk told, som kan reducere BNP med 0,2% til 0,4% det næste år, især hvis farmaceutiske produkter også underlægges told. Den Schweiziske Nationalbank er tilbageholdende med at sænke renterne, trods presset. Global vækst kan knap mærkes; dog er følgerne for inflation ujævne men kortvarige. For investorer fremhæves europæiske værdiaftaler, mens unikke amerikanske forretningsmodeller forbliver attraktive.
Fra Julius Bär:
US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on imports from more than 90 countries have come into effect. The tariffs mean companies that bring foreign goods into the US will have to pay the taxes to the government, and experts say these companies may pass costs on to consumers. The true burden of the tariffs depends on product-specific exemptions, overlapping measures, and the exact mix of goods each country exports to the US. The effective tariff rates quantify the additional burden from the latest US tariff announcements after adjusting for product-specific exemptions, weighted by each country’s mix of 2024 exports to the US, and are displayed in the chart below.
US inflation: Tariff effects start to be felt
US inflation could be heading lower, as softening consumer demand, due to moderating job growth and depressed consumer sentiment, makes price increases more difficult. At the same time, rent inflation, which accounts for more than a third of inflation, is slowing down and is expected to slow down further. The main reason why inflation remains closer to 3% than the central bank’s target of 2% is the increase in the price of imported consumer goods, which are now subject to sizable tariffs, and domestic goods affected by the increased cost of intermediary goods subject to tariffs. We expect these offsetting factors to persist in the coming months, as the effect of tariffs on inflation unfolds slowly, much like a consumption tax.
We expect higher consumer prices due to tariffs to be transitory, as there is no offsetting consumer support that would enable US consumers to pay higher prices for tariffed goods while maintaining their spending on other goods and services. Elevated inflation will notably contribute to lower consumer spending in the US, which will start to drive inflation lower in 2026, when the impact of the tariffs that have pushed the prices of affected goods higher starts to fade.
The tariffs enacted so far would result in customs payments of around USD 540 billion annually, when applied to last year’s US import value. It is plausible that US import volumes will decline somewhat this year in response to tariffs and slowing consumer demand. The tariff bill has already increased by 0.7% of GDP by July and, with the new tariffs in place, could rise by up to 1.4% of GDP. We expect that the US consumer will pay a large part of that.
Switzerland: US tariffs burden the economy
The recent tariff escalation is a blow to the Swiss export sector, especially to those sectors with a high exposure to the US market. The more favourable US tariffs for European partners (15% for the EU, 10% for the UK) additionally reduce the competitiveness of Swiss companies in the US market. Pharma products account for around 50% of Swiss exports to the US. As the ‘reciprocal’ tariff exempts pharma products, the effective average US tariff rate on Switzerland is now around 20%. Thus, while the tariff increases headwinds for the Swiss economy, the exclusion of the pharma sector reduces the burden for now. Nevertheless, the tariff could shave off 0.2%–0.4% of Swiss gross domestic product over the coming year. We have thus lowered our growth forecasts for Switzerland to 1.0% in 2025 (from 1.2%) and to 1.2% for 2026 (from 1.4%). Furthermore, there is a significant risk that tariffs on pharma products will be introduced. A separate investigation into potential tariffs on pharma products is currently underway, and President Donald Trump recently stated that tariffs would be imposed soon and could reach up to 250% within the next 18 months. The economic damage would become more severe if the tariffs on the pharma sector were to be implemented.
As things can change very quickly these days, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is likely to wait and see for the time being to gain more clarity on the impact of the tariffs on price stability in Switzerland. At its meeting in June, the SNB signalled that the hurdle for negative rates is high. Recent inflation data pointed to a short-term stabilisation of inflation. While the escalation of trade tensions increasing the risk that the SNB will have to lower its policy rate into negative territory, we do not expect a hasty reaction and maintain our projection that the SNB will leave its policy rate unchanged over the next 12 months.
What does this mean for investors?
We expect the trade shock to dent growth only marginally on a global scale. As for inflation, the impact will likely be quite uneven but also transitory. Part of the inflation impact should become visible as early as this Tuesday when the latest US inflation report is due. On a more positive note, tariffs are up, but the uncertainty around them has come down. So a relative game has started, where it is more important to look at who among global exporters might be most affected by the US ruling compared to competitors. Balancing the share of affected export volumes and the size of exports to the US, China, Brazil, and Switzerland face the most headwinds, while Mexico, Canada, and Taiwan face less damage than their competition.
On a regional basis, the divergences are mind-boggling and had been building long before the ‘tariff man’ started to shake the markets. European quality names have significantly lagged the overall market in past quarters, while value stocks continue to shine. The contrast with the US could not be more pronounced, where the ‘mega-growers’ are the only game in town. For global investors, this means continuing to add value franchises in Europe, while sticking only to US names that boast unique business models.
Find out more about the current investment environment in our Market Outlook Mid-Year 2025.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
