Resume af teksten:
Den militære konflikt i Iran varer længere end forventet, og nogle asiatiske lande oplever tidlige brændstofmangel. Der har været få angreb på energi-infrastruktur og skibe. Alternative forsyningsruter, især gennem Saudi-Arabien via Det Røde Hav, er blevet hurtigt oprettet. Konflikten har ført til en kortvarig, men intens prisstigning på energi. Økonomiske vækstprognoser påvirkes af strammere finansielle betingelser, især i USA, med lavere aktiekurser og stigende obligationsrenter. Konflikten og højere energipriser belaster den globale vækst. Markederne skifter fokus til vedvarende energikost-effekter på global vækst. Investorer forholder sig forsigtige, da usikkerhed omkring konflikten vedbliver.
Fra Julius Bär:
Looking back, there are various surprises. On the intensifying side, the military clash is lasting longer than initially foreseen. Some Asian countries proved more vulnerable than expected, experiencing fuel shortages early on. On the softening side, there is so far little meaningful damage to energy infrastructure and very few attacks on ships. Alternative supply routes have ramped up swiftly, especially Saudi exports via the Red Sea. Trade through Hormuz is picking up incrementally, with ever more Asian buyers willing to engage with Iran on deals to safeguard their ships.
Assessing the Iran war: Emerging trends and our updated geopolitical scenarios
The common thesis remains valid for the time being: the Iran war is very likely following the usual geopolitical pattern, causing a short-lived but very intense energy price spike. That said, the military clash has proved more enduring, and the economic consequences are regionally more pronounced.
Efforts to secure a good position for the deal-making could bring further escalation and nervousness in the very near term. The US administration is aware of the oil price burden and the political backlash but may be willing to push to the limits of this constraint. A more lasting escalation – and more enduring energy price shock – would require a combination of serious energy infrastructure damage, trade restrictions outside the Gulf, or greater political chaos, including a regime change in Iran or rifts among the Gulf nations, resulting in more lasting trade and energy supply disturbances.
Our three short term scenarios for energy prices
Economic growth: Headwinds mounting
In the initial reaction to the Iran war, it was the heightened risks of inflation that dominated. Five weeks on, the risks to growth are becoming increasingly apparent. Financial market reactions play a decisive role in shaping the economic outlook. Lower share prices, rising bond yields, and changing interest rate expectations are leading to a tightening of financial conditions. Whilst all regions are facing tighter financial conditions, the impact is greater in the US than in Europe due to the significant impact of asset prices on US consumer spending and the economy’s high degree of consumption dependency.
At the same time, higher bond yields in Italy and France relative to Germany are placing varying degrees of pressure on economic growth within the eurozone. A stronger currency also leads to tighter financing conditions, contributing to tighter conditions in China and more moderate developments in Japan and the eurozone. We expect tighter financial conditions to weigh on growth in the US in Q2 2026, while Europe is expected to face more headwinds from deteriorating consumer and business sentiment.
Equity markets have extended their recent decline amidst further escalation in the Middle East conflict. The S&P 500 fell another -2.1% last week, marking its fifth consecutive weekly loss and pushing the index to a seven-month low, while volatility (VIX Index) has risen to levels last seen during last year’s Liberation Day tariff turmoil. The entry of additional actors into the conflict and increasingly aggressive rhetoric around potential military actions have reinforced concerns that this is no longer a short-lived shock but a more persistent geopolitical event.
As a result, markets are shifting from pricing in a contained disruption to a scenario where higher energy costs begin to weigh more meaningfully on global growth. Looking ahead, visibility remains limited. The path of the conflict is highly uncertain, with risks skewed towards further escalation before any credible de-escalation emerges. The longer the disruption persists, the higher the probability of second-round effects, particularly through tighter financial conditions and weaker consumption. This dynamic complicates the policy backdrop, as central banks have limited room to offset a supply-driven shock without risking further inflation pressures.
Against this backdrop, we maintain a cautious, wait-and-see stance. In our view, it is premature to add equity exposure aggressively, as markets are still adjusting to the evolving macroeconomic impact. While US equities are showing relative resilience, supported by lower direct energy sensitivity and initial USD liquidity demand, this should be seen as a temporary phenomenon. Beyond the immediate shock, we expect the broader trend of non-US outperformance to reassert itself. Periods of relative strength in US markets should therefore be used to gradually rotate into non-US equities, in line with the ongoing shift towards a more diversified global equity allocation.
What does this mean for investors?
For now, markets are still having to price in the risk that rationality does not prevail quickly. Brent crude oil is rising, stocks are falling, sentiment is weakening, and concerns about slower US growth are resurfacing just as inflation fears return through the energy channel. This is why the current phase still argues for caution rather than courage. The first condition for a more constructive stance is as technical as it is fundamental: risk assets need to reclaim their 200-day moving averages. Any rebound from here will be telling. If it proves shallow and unstable, the market is saying the shock is more lasting. If it is forceful, the case for a transient geopolitical spike strengthens.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
