Resume af teksten:
Europas store multinationale selskaber, kendt som GRANOLAS (herunder GSK, Roche, Novo Nordisk, blandt andre), oplever en udfordring med faldende aktievurderinger og indtjeningsforventninger. Tidligere fordelagtige globale markeder er nu problematiske grundet handelsstrategier, valutavolatilitet og svagere ekstern efterspørgsel. Dette har medført investorers bevægelse mod sektorer med mere stabile, lokalt drevne indtægtsstrømme. I USA dominerer store teknologiaktier, mens Europa ser en vækst i værdi- og cykliske sektoraktier på grund af et stærkt indenlandsk økonomimiljø. Investorer opfordres til at skræddersy deres porteføljer efter regionale styrker for at optimere afkast og mindske risici snarere end at følge en universel strategi.
Fra Julius Bär:
The GRANOLAS lose their shine
The GRANOLAS — an acronym for 11 of Europe’s largest and most influential multinational companies (GSK, Roche, ASML, Nestlé, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L’Oréal, LVMH, AstraZeneca, SAP, and Sanofi) — were market leaders for much of the past decade. In a decade of subdued economic growth across Europe, they thrived from consistent earnings visibility, underpinned by global demand from the US and China.
Today, that narrative is being challenged by shifting trade policies, currency volatility, and softer external demand. The result? Earnings downgrades and a valuation reset. The premium that quality stocks once commanded over the broader European equity market has narrowed from 48% in June 2024 to about 19% now.
The group’s reliance on international markets, once a strength, now exposes them disproportionately to geopolitical tensions and currency fluctuations. As a result, investor sentiment has turned more cautious, and capital has flowed toward sectors with more predictable, locally-driven revenue streams.
The GRANLOAs illustrate how market leadership can change. Let’s take a step back and examine the current dynamics in the US and Europe on a broader level.
The US story: Narrow leadership driven by large-cap growth
The US equity market has been powered by a concentrated group of mega-cap technology companies that dominate areas such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and digital platforms. These firms have consistently delivered faster earnings growth than the broader market.
These companies lead in the US for three reasons:
Strong, long-term growth drivers (AI, digital transformation, cloud services)
High profit margins and scalable business models
Investor confidence supported by consistent earnings beats
One consequence of this narrow leadership is that broader market health can be masked. While headline indices appear strong, many smaller or more traditional sectors are seeing flat or even negative returns. This concentration risk means that index performance is increasingly dependent on just a handful of companies.
The European contrast: Value and domestic-oriented cyclicals in the driver’s seat
In Europe, the rally’s engine is different. Market momentum has shifted toward value and domestic-oriented cyclical sectors.
This is because value stocks trade at lower prices relative to fundamentals (like earnings or book value), often in more mature industries. Cyclical sectors on the other hand are those whose profits move with the economy — for example, banks and industrial companies. They are doing well in Europe as a result of resilient earnings in a supportive domestic macroeconomic backdrop and improving capital-return policies (higher dividends, share buybacks).
The preference for domestically-focused sectors in Europe is partly a reflection of increased tariff and currency related headwinds. Pick-up in domestic growth, supported by large-scale fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy, has allowed sectors such as banking, infrastructure, and construction-related industries to stage a comeback.
Why are “quality” stocks lagging in Europe?
Traditional “quality” sectors — such as consumer goods and healthcare — have underperformed in Europe. These companies typically have steady cash flows, strong brands and dominant market positions. They also have high overseas sales, especially to the US but also in other key regions.
This global exposure, once a tailwind, has recently become a headwind due to trade tensions and tariffs creating uncertainty for cross-border sales, as well as currency swings — e.g. a weaker US dollar reducing the value of foreign earnings in local currency. Moreover, shifting supply chain strategies in the wake of the pandemic have increased costs for many of these companies. Furthermore, regulatory pressures in certain export markets have created additional headwinds.
Why the divergence matters for investors & how to position your portfolio
The US–Europe divergence reflects deeper differences in economic structure and policy. In the US, structural growth themes — AI adoption, cloud infrastructure, and scalable digital platforms — continue to support large-cap growth leadership. However in Europe, a firmer domestic cyclical backdrop is supporting banks, industrials, and other value-oriented segments.
In the US, we recommend staying aligned with the leading growth companies. This remains important to capture market momentum. In Europe, we recommend a tilt towards value and domestic-oriented cyclical sectors which could offer better opportunities in the near term. For globally diversified investors, understanding these leadership dynamics is essential for positioning portfolios effectively. Rather than applying a one-size-fits-all strategy across developed markets, allocating based on regional strengths may enhance returns and reduce risk exposure in the current environment.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
