Resume af teksten:
De seneste handelsforhandlinger har resulteret i 15% told på EU-varer til USA. USA har også fastsat 10% told for britiske varer, 15% for japanske, og 20% for vietnamesiske varer. EU’s løfte om at investere 600 milliarder USD i USA matcher Japans tidligere aftale på 550 milliarder USD. Disse foranstaltninger er en del af USA’s handelsstrategi, hvilket skaber øgede omkostninger for virksomheder og forbrugere. Den Europæiske Centralbank (ECB) holder foreløbig renten uændret, men er opmærksom på de deflationære risici fra handelskonflikten med USA, der kan påvirke europæisk økonomisk aktivitet og efterspørgsel. På trods af disse udfordringer viser Europas økonomi modstandsdygtighed, delvist takket være en stærkere indenlandsk efterspørgsel og en mere ekspansiv finanspolitik, især i Tyskland. ECB forventes at overveje en rentenedsættelse senere, hvis handelskonflikten viser sig overvejende deflationær.
Fra Julius Bär:
EU-US tariff deal: 15% – What is the impact?
In previous weeks, the US agreed to 10% tariffs on most goods from the UK, 15% for those from Japan, and 20% for those from Vietnam. Furthermore, the EU’s commitment to invest USD600 billion in the US mirrors a similar pledge made by Japan, which promised to invest USD550 billion as part of its own trade deal with the US. Indeed, the 15% rate and large-scale investment commitments are emerging as hallmarks of the US’s trade strategy, with the UK’s 10% tariff potentially representing a lower bound and Vietnam’s 20% tariff an upper bound. While the new tariff will bring substantial economic costs for businesses and consumers, Europe’s shift towards more domestic demand may help mitigate the impact.
For businesses, the deal brings some certainty about the new reality of permanently higher tariffs. However, compared to the pre-2025 low-tariff regime, the economic costs are substantial. As is often the case in high-tariff environments, the new tariff regime entails challenges for businesses and consumers. On the one hand, the competitiveness of European firms affected by the 15% tariff will be harmed. On the other hand, US consumers can expect to face higher prices, which will erode their purchasing power. The inflationary impact of these higher tariffs is likely to become apparent in upcoming US inflation readings, and the uncertainty surrounding this impact is a key reason why the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting.
European Central Bank: Adopting a wait and see approach
Last week, the European Central Bank left its policy rate unchanged, since inflation is on target and economic growth is unfolding better than expected. The ECB signalled a clear wait-and-see approach, adhering to the principle of data-dependent policymaking, and appears to consider its current stance appropriate given the current growth and inflation backdrop.
Moving forward however, the ECB acknowledges the disinflationary threats posed by the US trade dispute, as uncertainty weighs on economic activity and overall demand. Furthermore, China’s redirection of its US trade to other countries, including Europe, is putting downward pressure on prices in these new destinations. However, at the same time, the ECB is concerned about the risk of supply chain disruption due to the trade dispute, which could push prices higher. Given this risk assessment, the ECB needs to see more evidence that the trade dispute is, on balance, disinflationary for the eurozone before resuming rate cuts. We expect evidence of these developments later in the year, so we are adjusting our policy rate outlook to anticipate one more rate cut at the October council meeting, followed by a pause. We expect the ECB to cut rates once more in March 2026, in response to undershooting its inflation target that year.
Conclusion – The European economy is resilient
While the tariffs will undoubtedly be challenging for Europe, its economy is resilient enough to withstand the repercussions. Following several years of underperformance, domestic demand in Europe has recently shown signs of growth, not least due to a more expansionary fiscal policy, notably in Germany. With domestic demand gaining traction, Europe’s dependence on export-led manufacturing is decreasing, which helps to cushion the blow from tariffs.
Find out more about the current investment environment in our Market Outlook Mid-Year 2025.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
