“2024 was a year of many central bank rate cuts, but central banks are currently at a crossroads given the major divergences in the global economy. Looking ahead, where does this leave the European Central Bank (ECB), US Federal Reserve (Fed), and Swiss National Bank (SNB)? Our research team provides their forecasts for 2025 and highlights the impact of deflationary forces on these central banks. Key take-aways: With the ongoing disinflationary pressures, we expect the SNB to continue its rate-cutting cycle. The ECB faces a stagnant economy, falling price competitiveness, and rising uncertainty. Policymakers are taking a dovish tone, hinting at rate cuts. The Fed has fewer deflation concerns, and officials are showing a hawkish tone, so a rate-cut pause is plausible.”
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Morten W. Langer
