Kina er den største drivkraft i den globale økonomi, og det betyder, at investeringer i Kina skal betragtes som lige så selvfølgelige som investeringer i f.eks. USA og Europa.
Uddrag fra UBS:
China and the gravity shift in global asset allocation
If the world economy is a solar system, then China is at the heart of it.
That’s especially true when we think of 2019, because if the story of 2019 was looser global monetary policy and stronger stock markets, then China wrote it.
That’s because China made the first move to ease monetary policy in October 2018, which the rest of the world then followed.
And it’s not for the first time, because China monetary policy was behind the post-GFC rebound in 2010, the upturn in global growth in 2016, and the subsequent slowdown in 2018.
And it’s a similar story for stock and fixed income investors.
The attraction of opportunities onshore from China’s vibrant sectors like consumer and technology have driven a steady increase in onshore asset ownership, with total ownership increasing 30% y-o-y to RMB 4trillion in September 2019, according to the People’s Bank of China.
In part that’s because of fundamentals.
Domestic dynamics like urbanization, automation, demographic change, premiumization, the growth of China’s internet population, all have much more room to grow and they present a whole range of opportunities for investors.
Four key drivers for China’s economy
More importantly, we’re seeing growing confidence in China because it has a demonstrated capacity to change with the times.
Just think about the policies enacted in the past few years: the one-child policy has been reversed, rural-to-urban migration controls have been abolished, and foreign investors have been allowed into onshore markets.
Put together, this mixture of attractive long-run fundamentals and commitment to reform is one that we believe is a long-term story.
Looking forward, we believe global asset allocation, the process of index inclusion, coupled with the outstanding opportunities available onshore, is going to require a global reallocation of capital to reflect China’s economic heft in the coming years.
And that means China allocations are no longer a niche, ‘nice-to-have’ investing approach.
In fact, given China’s weight, we believe it should be treated as a standalone allocation of its own, as it is for the US, UK and Japan, and, furthermore, that the key question for allocators is not ‘what’s your strategy for 2020?’ but ‘what’s your China strategy for 2020?
We believe investors will find a whole range of opportunities to base their strategies around and ensure that they too fall into China’s orbit.
Contribution to global growth (PPP), 2018-2019
Source: IMF, 2019
