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Morten W. Langer

lørdag 05. oktober 2024 kl. 17:08

Uddrag fra The Market EAr

China changes the game

“We raise China to overweight and increase our MXAPJ index target on higher earnings and valuations.” (Goldman)

Source: Goldman

 

Sharper China rally

The current rally is sharper than most previous policy-driven ones.

Source: FactSet

 

More convincing this time around

China stimulus looks more convincing this time around: off-setting geopolitical concerns?

Source: Macrobond

 

Stimulus history

China stimulus in ’08, ’16, ’20 followed by a rise in valuations.

Source: BofA quant

 

10 bear market rallies

Prior to the current rally, there were 10 rallies of 10% or more since the start of the bear market that all proved transitory and led to heightened investor skepticism about policy efficacy.

Source: FactSet

 

Lowest positioning in a decade

Based on EPFR data, mutual funds globally in aggregate have 5% allocation in Chinese equities as of end-August, the lowest over the past decade.

Source: EPFR

 

2nd largest ever

2nd largest weekly inflow ever to China equity funds.

Source: Flow Show

 

Valuation below mean

China’s valuation is moderately below mean even after the powerful rally: our macro model indicates further valuation expansion.

Source: FactSet

 

The Japan comparison

Japan’s equity market staged 7 substantial rallies during its extended bear market, showing investment opportunities can exist within a challenging macro backdrop.

Source: FactSet

 

Not bad

Total shareholder yield of global markets.

Source: Soc Gen

 

Bargain?

China banks– Price-to-book ratio.

Source: Soc Gen cross-assset

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