På enkelte områder er der klare tegn på fremgang i amerikansk økonomi, især på boligmarkedet. Der er en stigning i anmodningen om boliglån, og der er også en stigning i bilsalget. Centralbankens pengeudpumpning samt de ekstremt lave renter har stimuleret udviklingen. Men det vil stadig tage lang tid, før et egentligt opsving finder sted, mener ING. Alt det, der er mistet under coronakrisen, genvindes ikke før slutningen af 2020.
Clear good news in some sectors
There is even more positive news from the housing market. This morning’s mortgage approvals data showed the seventh consecutive increase in applications for home purchases. As the chart below shows, this is clearly a V-shaped recovery, which is remarkable given the scale of job losses seen in the economy.
A key reason for this is that the average home buyer in the US is 47 years old, as reported by the National Association of Realtors. More affluent, slightly older workers have been less impacted by job losses than younger workers employed in retail and hospitality, for example.
The rebound in equities may also have calmed any nervousness about making a potential purchase of a new primary or secondary home, while aggressive Federal Reserve action has eased financial market tensions, with credit continuing to flow and mortgage rates falling to new lows.
This is important because a strong housing market will support construction and employment in the sector. Housing transactions are also strongly correlated to retail sales – as people move to a new home they typically also spend more on furniture and home furnishings, garden equipment and building supplies such as paint for home improvement.
Yesterday’s car sales numbers also suggested a healthy rebound is materialising. Here too, demographics are the major story. The average age of a car buyer is nearly 50 and for those who feel secure in their job, there are some great financing deals to be had.
V-shaped recovery in housing and autos?
But a full recovery will take time
That’s not to say the rest of the economy will bounce back so vigorously. By way of reference it took the US 14 quarters to recover the 4% of lost economic output during the Global Financial Crisis.
While the Federal Reserve and Federal government have come in with a raft of support mechanisms, social distancing constraints, travel limitations, consumer caution surrounding the virus and the economic legacy of millions of people out of work mean this recovery will take time.
We continue to doubt that all of the lost output will be recouped before the end of 2022.
