De seneste udtalelser fra præsident Trump og udenrigsminister Mike Pompeo indikerer, at vi er på vej ind i en ny handelskrig mellem USA og Kina – som en gengældelse mod, at virussen kom fra Kina og med påstande om, at Kina har holdt mange oplysninger skjult. Men på baggrund af krisen og den økonomiske nedtur, kan en handelskrig 2.0 bliver langt værre end den første.
Uddrag fra ING:
Trade War 2.0
Comments from the US’ Mike Pompeo about the origin of the coronavirus together with a suggestion from President Trump that he will impose tariffs on China because of the outbreak are not helping risk sentiment and are pushing USDCNY higher.
USDCNY rising
Our Economist for Greater China, Iris Pang, like most of us, is obliged to produce spot forecasts on a range of market indicators, as well as the usual macro numbers. It is one of those parts of the job that carries little upside. And the standing USDCNY 7.25 forecast for end 2Q20 has not been criticism-free.
But the recent rhetoric from the US is beginning to make it look quite a promising call.
For a few weeks now, mutterings and criticism from the US administration about the origins of the Covid-19 outbreak have been growing. These reached a crescendo at the end of last week, with President Trump reported in Bloomberg of having threatened to impose tariffs on China in retaliation for the Covid-19 outbreak and US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, talking of the “enormous evidence” linking the outbreak to the Wuhan vIrus laboratory.
We haven’t seen or heard any of the evidence referred to, so we can’t comment on that. But it does look as if one of the underpinnings of the 7.25 call – namely a return to trade tension – is turning into reality. If this continues, then a 7.25 end 2Q20 USDCNY result will suit our forecasts very well.
For those of you who can still remember the trade war, one of the key results of enhanced trade tension was – stronger USD (so weaker everything else, but especially CNY), and a drop in risk appetite.
It is possible that the US administration feels emboldened to restart the trade rhetoric given the rally stocks have undergone in recent weeks. If so, Friday’s S&P 500 sell-off comes as a reminder that the underlying drivers for markets have not changed. And given the incredibly weak backdrop, a return to trade war really has the potential to be even more damaging (to both sides) than it was under version 1.0. This needs close watching.
