Coronakrisen vil koste det tyske erhvervsliv mellem 255 og 729 milliarder euro, dvs. op mod godt 5000 milliarder kr., hvis erhvervslivet lukkes ned i tre måneder, viser en analyse, som det tyske Ifo-institut har foretaget. Derfor må der gøres alt for at afkorte krisen uden at svække kampen mod virussen, siger Ifo.
Uddrag fra Ifo:
Ifo Institute: Corona will cost Germany hundreds of billions of euros
The corona virus will bring hundreds of billions of euros in production losses to Germany’s economy, spur short-time work and unemployment, and put a significant strain on the state budget. This is what current calculations by the Ifo Institute have shown. “The costs are expected to exceed everything known in Germany from economic crises or natural disasters in recent decades,” says Ifo President Clemens Fuest. “Depending on the scenario, the economy shrinks by 7.2 to 20.6 percentage points. That corresponds to costs of 255 to 729 billion euros. ”
“It is therefore worthwhile to use almost every conceivable amount for health policy measures. The goal must be to shorten the partial closure of the economy without compromising the fight against the epidemic, ”says Fuest. “Strategies are needed that can link production resumption with further containment of the epidemic.”
“If the economy comes to a standstill for two months, costs can range from 255 to 495 billion euros, depending on the scenario. Economic output then shrinks by 7.2 to 11.2 percentage points a year, ”says Fuest. In the best scenario, it is assumed that economic output will drop to 59.6 percent for two months, recover to 79.8 percent in the third month and finally reach 100 percent again in the fourth month. “With three months of partial closure, the costs already reach 354 to 729 billion euros, which is a 10.0 to 20.6 percentage point loss in growth,” says Fuest.
According to the ifo calculations, a single week extension of the partial closure causes additional costs of 25 to 57 billion euros and thus a decrease in growth of 0.7 to 1.6 percentage points. An extension from one to two months increases costs by up to 230 billion euros or 6.5 percentage points of growth.
“The crisis also leads to massive upheavals on the labor market. These overshadow the situation at the height of the financial crisis, ”says Fuest. In the scenarios considered by the Ifo, up to 1.8 million jobs subject to social security contributions (or 1.4 million full-time jobs) could be lost and more than six million employees could be affected by short-time work.
Without taking into account the extensive planned guarantees and loans as well as possible European rescue packages, public budgets will be burdened by up to 200 billion euros. “For overall economic stabilization, however, the reduced income from taxes and additional expenditure, especially for transfers, are desirable and necessary,” says Fuest.
