Saxo Bank venter, at den amerikanske centralbank kun vil sænke renterne i første halvår for ikke at blive involveret i den amerikanske valgkamp. Der er meget ringe sandsynlig for rentestigninger, også globalt.
Uddrag fra Saxo Bank:
We have 8 scheduled Fed meetings this year. To start off as a summary there were 3 cuts last year taking us from 2.25-2.50 to the current 1.50-1.75.
Our view is that for 2020 the Fed has a half-life.
If they are going to make any rate decision, it is likely going to be prudent for them to move in the first 6m of the year – given that 2nd half will be all around US elections.
They would not want to get caught up in playing favorites one way or another – whether or not they explicitly state this is beside the point, this is human nature plus saving potential embarrassment & stress (path of least resistance). Obviously with US elections being on Nov 3 – the Fed could still do something on the Nov 5 & Dec 16 meetings.
We are a touch skeptical on the consensus 1H economic bounce, we’ll know once we are through 1Q20 whether or not globally it’s a symmetrical real bounce or not – yet think we most likely see at least one cut from the Fed in 1H20.
That would likely at the min. come on Apr 29 (yet more likely Jun 10) as that would have given us 6 full months since the last cut on 30 Oct 19 & 9 months since their first cut on 31 Jul 19 – i.e. rationale being here, that would have given them enough time to see whether or not their cuts were having the desired effect. Or to put it differently, they would have paused for enough time to really gauge whether further cuts are warranted.
Obvious risk to this, is if consensus is spot on – & note consensus tends to be right overtime, the contrarian inflection points are actually really few & far between… they are just sexier to talk about & be about… “I am going against the crowd” good luck! The vast majority of the time the crowd wins… there are likely more dead contrarian trade views than there are people who have ever lived on the planet – then we get a big bounce, including in China’s economy, that leads the Fed to be comfortable on sitting on the sidelines.
And obvious risk to them cutting earlier are worse than expected deceleration from the US economy.
No doubt if we do get a Phase One Deal Break-off in 1Q/2Q this year, folks will re-calibrate the Fed’s potential pathway.
Before we lay out the meetings of the Fed, its worth noting one thing that is definitely not consensus – and that is a hawkish Fed for 2020 & for global central banks in general.
