ABN Amro tolker ECB-chefen Christine Lagardes nylige udtalelser som tegn på nye, snarlige stimuli fra centralbankens side. Hun henviser nemlig til, at genopretningen ikke er tilendebragt, og at coronakrisen stadig tynger den økonomiske aktivitet. Mange i centralbanken er imod nye stimuli, men banken mener, at flere bevæger sig over på Lagardes linje, der kan føre til en ny pakke på 500 milliarder euro i december.
Global Daily – Lagarde sets scene for further stimulus
ECB View: Further stimulus looks likely despite opposition – ECB President Christine Lagarde spoke recently before the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (see here).
She struck a dovish tone, which signalled that further monetary stimulus is likely.
Ms. Lagarde noted that ‘the recovery remains incomplete, uncertain and uneven’ and that ‘the public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity and poses downside risks to the economic outlook’.
In addition, ‘the sharp drop in economic activity earlier this year has weakened price pressures’ that inflation was ‘expected to remain negative over the coming months’ and was ‘clearly far away’ from the ECB’s goal.
She concluded that ‘in the current environment of elevated uncertainty, the Governing Council will carefully assess all incoming information. It continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry’.
Although there is clearly opposition to a further round of stimulus from the more hawkish members of the Governing Council at this stage, we continue to judge that central bank will announce a step up in net asset purchases before long.
We think that there is a majority of officials who are already starting to come behind this view, including crucially the President, Vice President and Chief Economist of the central bank.
In addition, incoming data should make the case stronger. We think that the eurozone economy is on the cusp of a double dip and this is starting to come through in key data points such as the PMI.
In addition, while core inflation is currently being driven down by the direct impact of the crisis on tourism, the disinflationary effects from weak growth are still very much ahead of us (see our more detailed views here).
We think the PEPP will remain the instrument of choice, and we expect it to be stepped up by another EUR 500bn in December, with the duration of the programme likely to eventually run through the end of next year.
