JP Morgan vurderer, at de lave oliepriser kan føre til deflation. Olieprisen er i dag 80 pct. under niveauet for et år siden. Den lave aktivitet med social distancing vil i lang tid føre til en lav oliepris på omkring 35 dollar pr. tønde, og det vil under alle omstændigheder føre til en meget lav inflation.
Uddrag fra JP Morgan:
Thought of the week
Last week, for the first time in history, the
price of WTI oil closed in negative territory
at -$37/barrel. We highlight the factors that
likely contributed to this in this week’s On
the Minds of Investors’ post.
While oil prices quickly rebounded into positive territory,
they remain at very low levels and investors
are now considering the potential for
outright deflation in the U.S. It should be
recognized that deflation at the headline
level (incl. food and energy) would not be a
new phenomenon.
As shown in this week’s chart,
headline CPI turned negative during
the Global Financial Crisis and again during
the oil collapse in 2015; and with oil prices
now down roughly 80% relative to a year
ago, we may experience some deflation in
the months ahead. Importantly, however,
these periods of deflation are typically
short lived as coordinated efforts amongst
oil producers correct supply/demand
imbalances fairly quickly, which we expect
will be the case in the coming weeks.
Still, the effects of social distancing are likely to
keep oil prices below $35/barrel in the near
term and inflation at very low levels. For
investors, this week’s FOMC meeting will
likely show that the committee views the
recent volatility in oil markets as transitory.
Instead, they are likely to focus on the steps
taken to ensure businesses remain afloat
amidst a collapse in revenues.
