Fra det tyske analysehus IFO:
An extension of Germany’s current “lockdown light” restrictions would reduce the seven-day infection rate only gradually in the coming weeks, to 75 per 100,000 inhabitants by Christmas. This is according to the latest calculations conducted by the ifo Institute together with researchers from the University of Bonn and the IZA. “Policymakers have the following options to achieve a further reduction in infections: they can tighten restrictions at educational institutions, in the retail trade, or both, or they could even introduce wide-ranging restrictions on social contact and leaving the house, as with a hard lockdown,” says Andreas Peichl, Director of the ifo Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys.
“The only way to prevent a new, hard lockdown in January is by appealing to citizens to voluntarily reduce their contacts,” Peichl continues. “In addition, every avenue for tracing chains of infection must be explored, including perhaps adding to Germany’s coronavirus warning app. Mass testing in high-risk regions and improvements in data collection should also be implemented. This would be more cost-effective than a blanket lockdown.”
The introduction of alternating classes and digital distance learning might be enough to bring the infection rate down to 50 by Christmas, Peichl continues. However, this would require the necessary digital infrastructure and concepts for home schooling to be in place – otherwise there is a risk that high costs in the education sector could damage Germany in the long term.
Nevertheless, it is also possible to push the infection rate below 50 by Christmas even with normal school operations: closing and restricting further economic and business activities while keeping schools open would have the same effect as a “lockdown light” with school closures. “So there is a need to weigh up which kind of damage should be classified as greater in economic and social terms: the long-term damage caused by restrictions in schools or the short-term damage caused by restrictions in other economic sectors,” Peichl says.