Den svenske regerings coronapolitik har ført til en så dramatisk forværring af økonomien, at virksomhederne abrupt er begyndt at afskedige medarbejdere. Ledigheden kan nå næsten 10 pct. til sommer, vurderer Nordea.
Uddrag fra Nordea:
Sweden Macro Flash: Bleak labour market
Last week, 6 600 workers were given notice of layoffs which is markedly lower than previous weeks. The increase of newly registered unemployed also slowed, but the outlook on the labour market is nevertheless bleak.
The number of workers who received a redundancy notice last week decreased compared to the previous weeks. Still, 6 600 workers were given notice, roughly double the number of the full month of April last year. Easter effects likely played a role in pulling the number down. Since March 1, in total 56 100 workers have been given notice.
Stockholm is still the worst hit region. Since March 1, almost 30 000 workers have been given notice in the capital region. The threat of layoffs is mainly concentrated to the private service sector so far, but beginning to spill over to other sectors.
The number of newly registered unemployed also fell back to almost 14 000 people from the very high reading in the previous week. However, Easter effects may be at play here as well.
All in all, unemployment will rise swiftly during the spring and most likely reach almost 10 percent this summer. Still, it is comforting to see that the pace of layoffs is decelerating, perhaps suggesting that many firms use temporary furloughs instead.
Firms also have to give notice two months in advance and firms might already have given notice as an insurance against persistently low demand, suggesting that there is still hope that not all notices will end in layoffs. However, we would like to see a couple of more readings before drawing any firm conclusions.
Details, Swedish Public Employment Services, Week 15:
Redundancy notices: 6 600 workers (prior 12 700)
Newly registered unemployed: 13 835 people (prior 25 350)
