Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Formue

Ledigheden i USA stiger dramatisk

Hugo Gaarden

mandag 23. marts 2020 kl. 12:00

Arbejdsløsheden stiger kraftigt i USA på grund af coronakrisen, da store dele af erhvervslivet er sat i stå. Udsigt til 2 millioner arbejdsløse – langt værre end under finanskrisen. Det kan ende i en kortvarig ledighed på 10 pct.

Uddrag fra ING:

US: The big, bad number of the week

The economic pain caused by the Covid-19 outbreak is evident in mass lay-offs across the country. This reinforces the urgent need for fiscal support for those most heavily impacted.

The intensifying economic pain from Covid-19

For what it is worth, the economic data for January and February keeps on coming and it’s been great.

Based on the numbers released so far the US was on course to record annualised growth of around 3% for the first quarter. That is now ancient history. The fear surrounding the Covid-19 outbreak and the measures to try to limit its spread have resulted in broad swathes of the US economy grinding to a halt. Recession is now unavoidable.

There has been particular pain felt in the leisure, hospitality and consumer service sectors. Restaurants and bars have closed across the country while the travel industry has been decimated as orders to keep movements to a minimum are heeded. Our current best guess is for the economy to contract by around 10% in the second quarter although even this figure is looking increasingly too optimistic.

Those people that can are increasingly working from home. However, not every job can be configured to be able to work remotely. Consequently, we are seeing worker lay-offs surge higher across the country as businesses are squeezed between a collapse in demand and tighter financial conditions.

US initial jobless claims

Bloomberg, ING
Bloomberg, ING

Unemployment is surging

Yesterday’s weekly initial jobless claims spiked 70,000 or 33% to 281,000, but a much bigger surge is likely next week. Individual states have been publishing data that suggest there has been between a four and ten-fold increase in jobless claims in recent days. California, for example, has recorded 190,000 claims versus 58,000 last week while in Ohio they have jumped from 7000 to 78,000. These are not seasonally adjusted figures, but with anecdotal evidence that states have not been able to fully log all applications due to jammed phone lines and website crashes, we should be braced for a truly awful figure next Thursday.

Assuming we average out at a seven-fold increase in claims versus last week this would translate into a 2 million rise in jobless claims. By way of comparison, the record high was 695,000 in early October 1982 with the Global Financial Crisis peak being 665,000 in late March 2009. Over the following couple of weeks, the numbers will drop back from this initial surge but will remain elevated at around the million mark.

With firms simply not hiring – apart from grocery and logistic companies – we are likely to see the unemployment rate rocket although it may not reach the 10% highs seen in the global financial crisis. After all, we are unlikely to be alone in hoping conditions improve and containment measures will be relaxed at some point in late 2Q. This could lead to a sense we might be on the path to normality in 2H20, which would presumably deter many companies from mass lay-offs. If we are wrong on this then 10%+ unemployment would be realistic.

Initial claims forecast for next week

Bloomberg, ING
Bloomberg, ING
Tilmeld dig vores gratis nyhedsbrev
ØU Top100 Finansvirksomhed

Få de vigtigste om bank, realkredit, forsikring, pension
Udkommer hver mandag.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev. Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik.

Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Udløber snart
Forretningsudvikler til Pension og Formue
Pension, Formue
Aabenraa
Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Udløber snart
Formuerådgiver
Formuerådgiver
Midt- og Nordjylland
Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Udløber snart
Afdelingsdirektør for forretningsudvikling Private Banking
Private Banking
Aabenraa
Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Udløber snart
Formuerådgiver
Formuerådgiver
Region hovedstaden og Sjælland
Regnskabsassistent til Pharma Nord
Region Syddanmark
Generalsekretær i Folkekirkens Nødhjælp
Region Hovedstaden
ØKONOMIMEDARBEJDER – Carlsbergfondet
Region Hovedstaden
Kontorchef for økonomi, analyse og kunder i Færdselsstyrelsen
Region H
DIGITALISERINGSCHEF – Muskelsvindfonden
Region H
Direktionskonsulent med flair for økonomi og udviklingsprojekter
Region Sjælland

Mere fra ØU Formue

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank