Fra APM:
Full-year guidance for 2021
Given the current outlook and high degree of uncertainty related to the continued impact from COVID-19 on the economic growth and global demand patterns,
A.P. Moller – Maersk expects for the full-year 2021:
• Underlying EBITDA in the range of USD 8.5-10.5bn compared to USD 8.3bn in 2020
• Underlying EBIT in the range of USD 4.3-6.3bn compared to USD 4.2bn in 2020
• Free cash flow (FCF) above USD 3.5bn compared to USD 4.6bn in 2020.
As part of the full-year guidance for 2021, A.P. Moller – Maersk expects the current exceptional situation with demand surge leading to bottlenecks in the supply chain and equipment shortage, which contributed by approximately USD 1.5bn to EBIT in 2020, to continue in Q1 and normalise thereafter. Consequently,
A.P. Moller – Maersk expects profitability in Q1 2021 to be above Q4 2020.
Ocean is expected to grow in line with the global container demand at an expected 3-5% in 2021, with the highest growth seen in the first half-year.
For the years 2021-2022, the accumulated CAPEX is still expected to be USD 4.5-5.5bn.
Sensitivity guidance
Financial performance for A.P. Moller – Maersk for the full-year 2021 depends on several factors and is subject to uncertainties related to COVID-19, bunker fuel prices and freight rates given the uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
All else being equal, the sensitivities for the full-year 2021 for four key assumptions are listed in the table below:
Factors Change Effect on EBIT
(midpoint of guidance)
(Full-year 2021)
Container freight rate +/- 100 USD/FFE +/- USD 1.3bn
Container freight volume +/- 100,000 FFE +/- USD 0.1bn
Bunker price (net of expected BAF coverage) +/- 100 USD/tonne +/- USD 0.4bn
Rate of exchange (net of hedges) +/- 10% change in USD +/- USD 0.2bn
