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EW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. equity investors could rotate out of high-yielding sectors and into stocks of banks, which would benefit from the next leg up in interest rates, after the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting meeting wraps up on Wednesday.
If the Fed next week gives a nod to rising inflation or focuses its trimmed-down bond buying on longer-dated bonds as it winds down its balance sheet, there could be a shift around of preferred sectors, investors said.
“In the short run financials will benefit,” said Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors, if the Fed action pushes long-term rates higher relative to short-term rates.
Next week’s meeting is not expected to result in an interest rate increase, but investors will focus on how Fed Chair Janet Yellen characterizes recent inflation readings, for clues to the likelihood of a hike in December, as well as on how the U.S. central bank will begin to wind down its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
Inflation has been persistently low but Yellen could dismiss this as transitory and point to recent stronger-than-expected data on consumer prices.
Any heightened expectations of a rate increase could fuel a rotation and “will certainly change leadership” among market sectors, favoring financials, industrials and materials, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group in Minneapolis.
