Resume af teksten:
Marine Le Pen blev i marts 2025 dømt for misbrug af assistenter fra Europa-Parlamentet. Efter en appel nu er hendes straf blevet ændret; hun skal afsone ét år med elektronisk overvågning. Hun er meget snart igen valgbar til præsidentvalget i 2027, men det er stadig uklart, om hun stiller op. Præsidentkampagnen i Frankrig er præget af usikkerhed med mange potentielle kandidater. Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, og Jean-Luc Mélenchon er blandt de mest prominente navne. Meningsmålinger viser, at Rassemblement National (RN) fører med 35% af stemmerne, mens centrum- og venstrepartier ligger lavere. Der er spekulationer om potentielle allianceskift, som kan påvirke valgets udfald. Frankrigs komplekse økonomiske klima, vokser budgetunderskud og politisk usikkerhed gør fremtidsudsigterne usikre. obligationsmarkederne reagerer lidt på det politiske miljø, men tilbagegangen i økonomien og budgetspændingsudfordringer giver anledning til bekymring.
Fra ING:
Marine Le Pen was convicted in March 2025 in a case concerning the misuse of European Parliament assistants by the former Front National. She was sentenced to four years in prison, including two years suspended, fined EUR 100,000, and barred from holding public office for five years with immediate effect. This ruling has now been reviewed on appeal.
The appeal court upheld her conviction today, but modified the sentence. She has been sentenced to three years in prison, including two years suspended, meaning that she will serve one year under electronic monitoring. She has also been banned from holding public office for 45 months, of which 30 months are suspended. As the period of ineligibility began in March 2025, the first 15 months have elapsed. As a result, she is now officially eligible to run in the 2027 presidential election.
Nevertheless, it remains uncertain whether she will actually stand as a candidate. A few days ago, she indicated that her candidacy would depend on not being sentenced to electronic monitoring. She is expected to announce her decision this evening. If she chooses not to run, Jordan Bardella is expected to become the presidential candidate for Rassemblement National (RN).
The presidential campaign remains highly uncertain. The number of potential candidates is still very large, reflecting the continued fragmentation of the French political system. French political history shows that opinion polls remain highly volatile nine months before a presidential election. Being the frontrunner at this stage does not guarantee victory.
Three leading candidates currently stand out on the centre-right and right: Édouard Philippe (Horizons), Gabriel Attal (Renaissance, the former party of Emmanuel Macron), and Bruno Retailleau (Les Républicains, representing the traditional conservative right). On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has already announced his candidacy and remains the most visible figure of the radical left. Raphaël Glucksmann is regularly tested in polls as a social-democratic and pro-European candidate. Marine Tondelier (Greens) and Fabien Roussel (French Communist Party) also feature in various electoral scenarios.
The most striking feature of recent polling is the RN’s lead. The RN’s candidate is generally credited with around 35% of voting intentions, well ahead of centrist candidates (typically between 15% and 20%) and left-wing candidates (around 10% to 15% for both Mélenchon and Glucksmann).
Based on current polling, the RN would therefore dominate the first round of the election. However, without knowing whether some centrist or left-wing candidates will eventually withdraw to avoid splitting the vote, it is difficult to identify the RN’s likely opponent in the second round. A run-off between the RN candidate and either Édouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal is often discussed, but a unified left rallying behind Raphaël Glucksmann could also lead to an RN–Glucksmann contest.
In the coming months, two issues deserve close attention: the left’s ability to unite behind a single candidate and the competition between Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal for leadership of the centrist bloc.
Regardless of who wins the presidential election, it is likely that the new president would dissolve the National Assembly shortly afterwards in an attempt to secure a governing majority, as the current fragmentation of parliament severely limits the scope for reforms. If a stable majority were to emerge following both the presidential and legislative elections, visibility on France’s economic policy outlook could improve significantly compared with the current situation. But the risk that a stable majority does not emerge is quite large.
Compared with the RN of 2017, the most significant change is its transformation from a Eurosceptic party advocating a break with the European institutional framework into a party seeking to reshape the European Union from within. Proposals to leave the euro area and hold a referendum on EU membership have disappeared from its programme. Nevertheless, the party remains highly critical of European integration and of what it sees as a loss of national sovereignty.
On public finances, the RN regularly criticises European fiscal constraints, the Stability and Growth Pact, excessive deficit procedures, and austerity policies. Its argument is generally that European rules limit the French state’s ability to protect the domestic economy. The party also maintains that France’s contribution to the EU budget should be reduced.
At the same time, the RN advocates cuts to production taxes and reductions in VAT. Its position on pensions remains unclear. Marine Le Pen initially defended a retirement age of 62 and even 60 for those with long careers, while Jordan Bardella has recently suggested abandoning the focus on the statutory retirement age and instead considering only the number of years of contributions. At this stage, the RN’s discourse is much more detailed regarding spending reallocations than regarding an explicit strategy for stabilising public debt over the long term. It is also considerably less committed to a rapid deficit reduction path than centre-right or traditional conservative parties.
Overall, given the precedent set by Giorgia Meloni’s government in Italy and the RN’s efforts to appear more business-friendly by dropping references to “Frexit”, a potential RN victory is viewed by financial markets as less disruptive than in previous presidential elections. However, the party’s programme remains highly vague at this stage, and market perceptions could change as policy proposals become more concrete.
That said, even in the event of an RN victory in the presidential election, it appears unlikely that the party would simultaneously secure an outright majority in the National Assembly. The need to form a coalition government could therefore moderate some of the most controversial elements of its programme.
The coming months are likely to be dominated by budgetary discussions, which are expected to be particularly difficult. This morning, the government revised down its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.7%, significantly below the 1.0% assumption used when the budget was drafted at the beginning of the year.
As a result, the government’s objective of reducing the fiscal deficit to 5% of GDP this year from 5.1% in 2025 has become even more challenging. Expenditure is running higher than expected due to rising interest payments on public debt and continued support measures related to the energy shock, while revenue is underperforming because of weaker economic growth. A EUR 6 billion spending cut for this year is currently being discussed, although no concrete measures have yet been identified.
The 2027 budget is likely to be even more complicated given the presidential election campaign. With no parliamentary majority currently in place, the prospects for agreement across political groups on a restrictive budget during an election campaign appear limited. Last May, the European Commission estimated that, under a no-policy-change scenario, France’s fiscal deficit would reach 5.7% of GDP in 2027, pushing public debt to 120.2% of GDP, compared with around 100% at the beginning of 2020. Charlotte de Montpellier
Bond markets have shown a muted reaction to the headlines surrounding Le Pen. One reason is that the RN has an alternative candidate in Jordan Bardella, who currently polls slightly ahead of her. Another is that markets remain primarily focused on France’s fiscal trajectory.
Current economic headwinds make it more difficult to bring down the deficit, and political uncertainty also muddies the trajectory for coming years. Spreads of 10y French government bonds over their German peers have already widened back towards the 80bp mark in the past week, although the level overstates the widening somewhat given a maturity mismatch between the current benchmark bonds. Looking at an interpolated 10y spread, we are more or less at the average spread going back to when snap elections were called in June 2024, setting off the more volatile environment for French bonds. As such, we still think that markets are lacking the clarity and confidence for material relief in spreads.
Benjamin Schroeder
The FX market is not currently looking at the French political and budget story. This follows a recurring script of recent years, where France-specific risk emerges as a key driver for the euro only once the bond market shows real signs of stress. For now, FX investors simply aren’t concerned about the recent widening in French spreads.
In the run-up to the April election, we expect elevated scrutiny of RN’s fiscal plans. Any headlines suggesting a looser approach to fiscal consolidation could spill over into the euro: we would expect that to become primarily visible in EUR/CHF weakness, as the franc is historically the quintessential hedge to EU risk.
For the moment, our baseline assumption is that – barring a surge in support for Mélenchon – any negative euro impact in coming months will likely prove short-lived as the RN and other parties closer to the centre will be careful not to cause serious OAT volatility during the campaign.
Francesco Pesole
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
