Det var overraskende, at den tyske forsvarsminister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, trak sig som kanslerkandidat og partiformand, og derfor må markedet holde et skarpt øje med en ny kandidat, da det kan få stor økonomisk og politisk betydning i det ellers solide Tyskland.
Uddrag fra Danske Bank:
In a surprise move, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) announced that she will resign as leader of Germany’s CDU party in the coming months to make room for a new chancellor candidate leading the party into new elections scheduled for the fall of 2021. The move was likely influenced by heavy criticism of AKK’s leadership in the Thuringian election debacle and her steady decline in approval ratings since becoming party leader in 2018. While AKK’s resignation is likely to increase the strain of the already fragile grand coalition, we do not think it will be enough to lead to a government crisis and trigger snap elections. Hence, the economic and market impact should be fairly limited at the current stage. Still, we think it will be important for markets to keep an eye on AKK’s emerging successor. Friedrich Merz, an economic liberal and fiscal conservative, who narrowly lost against AKK in 2018, could again become one of the frontrunners to take on Merkel’s succession.
