Goldman Sachs har analyseret recessionerne og markedernes genopretning. Der går i snit fire måneder med en genopretning. Problemet i coronakrisen er, at det er uklart, hvornår krisen bunder. Sker det i april? De længste perioder for en genopretning er mllem 6 og 10 måneder.
Uddrag fra Goldman Sachs:
S&P 500 Index Recovery in Recession
Markets are forward-pricing, and on average they bottom and begin to recover five months before the economy does. To be sure, it is not clear that the market bottom has yet passed – April will likely see challenging economic and earnings data and there remain material downside risks. Nevertheless, as virus-related data ultimately improves, the path to recovery may become more clear.
