Merrill betragter coronakrisen som et wake-up call til en bedre økonomi og et bedre fungerende erhvervs- og samfundsliv, der ikke nødvendigvis vil føre til en dyr omstilling: Sunde, gamle værdier kommer i højsædet med “rettidig omhu”, god hygiejne, sundhed, kvalitet fremfor kvantitet, decentralisering, mindsket kompleksitet i produktionen og forsyningskæden, større økonomisk og social stabilitet og en mere miljørigtig udvikling.
Uddrag fra Merrill:
A Wake-Up Call
Although the lesson learnt about the importance of hygiene during the current pandemic
came at an incomprehensibly high cost, it is encouraging that such small/inexpensive
actions at the personal level would go so far in preventing future epidemics. A focus on
education and hygiene is critical and should be the front-line defense against future health
crises.
Still, the prospect of tens of millions of potential casualties from one pandemic
event, as experts commonly predict, and the fundamental need to limit their impact
suggest the emergence/acceleration of multiple trends in the U.S. post-COVID-19.
As already discussed, we believe that some of the implications from the pandemic crisis
include an erosion of confidence in global governance and centralization, the need to
reduce supply-chain fragility, the likely end of the hyperglobalization trend, and ensuing
changes in capital flows (with benefits to the U.S. economy). In our view, other likely
effects, also reinforced by growing risks and fears of cyberterrorism, include:
1. The need to refocus government attention and its limited resources on essential goods and services, such as security, including cybersecurity, public health and infrastructure;
2. An increased focus on preventive care/wellness;
3. De-urbanization and decentralization in search of lower public-health risks, more
space, self-sufficiency—for food, water, electricity generation—better quality of life,
and increased resilience to shocks. Of note, according to a Washington Post article
on December 18, 2018, “Gallup’s data underscores how many city-dwellers would gladly
give up the urban lifestyle, if only they could.” According to the article, while about 80%
of Americans live in urban areas, Gallup data indicate that many urban dwellers aren’t
living in cities by choice. Asked what kind of community they prefer, just 12% said
they prefer a big city.
4. A counterurbanization-related increase in home building and demand for durable
consumer goods.
5. A shift in business emphasis from cost cutting to raising product quality, innovation
and sustainability. This would be in line with increased awareness of the importance
of wellness for pandemic outcomes and an already observed trend in consumer
preference for products marketed as “sustainable.” According to the New York
University Stern Center for Sustainable Business, between 2013 and 2018, U.S. sales
of consumer packaged goods marketed as sustainable increased almost six times
faster than sales of products conventionally marketed. In our view, the shift from quantity to quality/sustainability should benefit the U.S.
6. Growing demand/investment for broadband internet access to support accelerated
adoption of internet-based schooling, commerce, medical care and telecommuting.
According to The Atlantic April 10, 2020 article, 30% of U.S. households lacked
broadband internet connection as of 2017, with millions of users only connected to the
internet through their phones, frequently with meager data plans.
7. A likely relative underperformance of demand for urban office space/housing/
shopping centers.
8. Accelerated automation to increase productivity and make production processes
compatible with social distancing. This could also decrease the vulnerability of supply
to disruptions due to contagious disease.
Clearly, change is accelerating. Interestingly, however, the pandemic seems to
be a wake-up call, and a likely catalyst, for a return to good old values, such as
preparedness, self-sufficiency, good hygiene, health and wellness, quality versus
quantity, and decentralization and reduced complexity/fragility of production and
supply networks, all critical for peace of mind, economic and social resilience/stability, economic prosperity, and ultimately, sustainable growth and progress.
