Den første måned af Ukraine-krigen har været usikker, men ifølge Merrill har aktiemarkederne klaret sig gennem krigsmåneden – som er det normale mønster under krige og udenrigspolitiske kriser. S&P 500-indekset er steget med 5,4 pct. siden krigens første dag, den 24. februar. Men der er dog forskelle på landene og indeksene. De europæiske markeder har ikke klare sig så godt, fordi Europa ligger tæt ved krigen, og fordi Europa er ramt af prisstigninger som følge af sanktionerne. Merrill venter, at den kommende tid kan blive præget af betydelig uro på markederne. Banken vil fortsat anbefale investeringer i FAANG 2.0: Fuels, Aerospace & Cybersecurity, Agriculture, Nuclear and renewables, and Gold and precious/base metals.
Market Returns One Month into the Ukraine Conflict
It has been choppy and fluid, but one month into the conflict with Russia and Ukraine, S&P 500
returns are positive, with the index up 5.4% since February 24, the first day of the Russian
invasion.
That is not surprising given past geopolitical shocks and subsequent S&P 500 market
returns. As we have outlined in the past few weeks, geopolitical events tend to have
limited effects on economic and market fundamentals, and this time—thus far—is no different.
Leading the way: Energy (18.5%), Utilities (11.5%), Materials (9.8%) and Industrials (7.4%).
Laggards: Technology (4.4%), Communication Services (3.4%) and Consumer Staples (2.1%)
Europe’s main indexes have not been as fortunate because of its 1) proximity to the conflict and
2) overdependence on Russian energy supplies. The attendant spike in global energy prices
(notably oil and natural gas) is pushing Europe closer to recession; meanwhile, the U.S. is far more
energy independent and far less reliant on Russia for trade and corporate earnings.
No, the U.S.
isn’t immune to global shocks, but, as we look past the crisis, market fundamentals like economic
growth, inflation, interest rates and corporate profits will ultimately determine the future direction
of the markets.
That said, it has hardly been smooth sailing here in the U.S. All three major indexes—S&P, Dow
Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ—have seen max drawdowns from year-to-date highs of
13.0%, 11.3% and 20.5%, respectively, following a rather tranquil 2021. Roiling the waters:
mounting inflationary pressures and a more hawkish Fed forced to play catch-up with rates.
As we enter the second month of the conflict, investors should expect more choppiness and
volatility, underscoring the importance of portfolio diversification and high-quality assets. We
continue to favor FAANG 2.0: Fuels, Aerospace & Cybersecurity, Agriculture, Nuclear and
renewables, and Gold and precious/base metals.
