Aktiemarkederne er faldet kraftigt i år – S&P 500-indekset med 13 pct., og det er især de mest værdifulde selskaber og tech-selskaber, som er faldet. Deres indtjening er faldet, og deres price/earning er styrtdykket med 25,5 pct. Men Merrill hæfter sig ved, at p/e-værdierne nu nærmer sig et 20-årigt gennemsnitsniveau for aktierne generelt. Nogle undervurderede aktiegrupper nærmer sig også gennemsnittet. Derfor er faldet i værdisætningen måske ved at ebbe ud, så aktiemarkederne nærmer sig en konklusion på kursfaldene – en vis normalisering, skriver Merrill.
Uddrag fra Merrill:
Anatomy of the Equity Market Decline
Equity markets have struggled so far in 2022. After reaching an all-time high on the first trading day of 2022, the S&P 500 Index posted a return of -13% in the first four months of the year.
However, examining the equity market decline yields some interesting observations. According to Credit Suisse, since the start of the year, the forward earnings expectations have improved by +5.7% so far this year, while the P/E ratio has declined -18.0%; so the decline is driven completely and overwhelmingly by the compression in the P/E ratio.
Digging deeper, most of the damage in the P/E compression has occurred in the 100 most highly valued stocks (Exhibit 3)—where the change in P/E contributed to a decline of -25.5% with positive earnings growth limiting the loss to -21.8%. The other stocks in the S&P also
declined—but by a much smaller 5.4%, with less of a detraction from multiple compression (-11.4%).
If there is a silver lining to this development, it is that the damage to the 100 most highly valued stocks and to Technology stocks has brought their relative valuation to the S&P 500 closer to their 20-year average. By contrast, other stocks and sectors in the S&P 500 have seen a slight improvement in their relative P/E valuation while still remaining below their 20-year average.
While risk and uncertainty remain in terms of Fed policy, geopolitics, and the coronavirus, the valuation repair to equity markets is perhaps well on its way to conclusion.
