Merrill har analyseret teknologisektoren, fordi mange venter, den får det lige så slemt som i 1999. Det kraftige udsalg af tech-aktier i år har i hvert fald fået mange til at forudsige et krak som i 1999. Merrill tror dog ikke, det går så galt, men banken ser med bekymring på sektoren og indtager en afbalanceret holdning.
Technology Sector Turmoil: Positioning Like It’s 1999?
As we approach the midpoint of a volatile year for equity markets, much of the price weakness
so far has been shouldered by the Technology sector. The tech selloff of 2022 has drawn
inevitable comparisons with the dot-com crash of 2000 and, according to the latest BofA
Global Fund Manager Survey for May, Information Technology is now the market segment with
the largest underweight among global investors relative to its long-term average.
We remain cautious on Information Technology for now and retain a balanced view on the
sector outlook. Relative price performance reached a recent trough of -8.8 percentage points
(ppts) versus the S&P 500, well above the -44 ppts of underperformance that followed the
dot-com peak. And at 27% so far, the absolute peak-to-trough is also a long way from the
2000 tech bust in terms of both magnitude (83%) and duration (2.5 years) (Exhibit 4B). It
seems doubtful that the current episode would approach these extremes, but ongoing risks
from weaker earnings and higher rate expectations leave us neutral in our tactical positioning.