Uanset hvordan COP26-klima-konferencen ender rent politisk, så bliver den grønne omstilling af stor betydning for erhvervslivet og dermed for investorerne. På en række områder bliver kampen mod klima-forværringen den største drivkraft for talrige virksomheder og sektorer, og dermed også for investorerne. Den største vækst vil vi se inden for vind og solceller, der fører til lavere energiudgifter. Dertil kommer el-biler og den infrastruktur, der skal opbygges. Det gavner producenter af ledningsnet og opladestationer. Danmark vil være et af de vigtigste investor-lande sammen med Frankrig og Italien, vurderer Merrill. Råvarer som kobber, nikkel, lithium og grafit vil få ny betydning. På længere sigt ligger de nye investeringsområder inden for opbevaring af energi og opsamling af CO2.
Uddrag fra Merrill:
COP26, The Energy Crisis and the Green Transition
The 2021 UN COP26 gets underway in Scotland. The ultimate goal is to increase the
pledges set out in Paris, with the aim of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5
degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and averting the most damaging effects of
climate change. In the wake of the latest climate report from the UN Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change1 released this past August, COP26 is widely seen by
policymakers as a final opportunity for concerted global action to meet key emissions
reduction targets and should, therefore, be closely watched by investors.
Since the 2015 summit, a growing number of countries has announced ambitions to reach
net-zero emissions by the middle of the century. As of Q3, a total of 132 nations (with
major exceptions including India, Russia and Indonesia) had proposed or adopted such a
target, up from just 42 at the end of last year.
For investors, we would expect clean energy and related materials, equipment and
infrastructure to be the principal beneficiaries of this trend over the course of the 2020s
and beyond. Key growth areas, in our view, should include suppliers of solar modules and
wind turbines, as well as providers of the balance of system components such as batteries,
power optimizers and inverters.
Developers of electrolyzers and fuel cells should benefit
from growth in green hydrogen for energy storage and use in industrial applications such
as steelmaking and fertilizer production, in addition to commercial transportation
segments such as heavy-duty trucks and forklifts.
Electric vehicle manufacturers should
also see tailwinds from growing consumer demand as battery costs decline, driving ranges
increase, and charging infrastructure is built out. And the commodities, such as copper,
nickel, lithium, graphite and cobalt, used to build renewable energy hardware, electric
vehicles and batteries are also likely to perform well over the longer term.
At the same time, renewable energy utilities and providers of smart grid features such as demand response and vehicle-to-grid systems should benefit as greater volumes of alternative
energy are connected to the power grid. And makers of industrial cables for long-distance
power transmission and grid connections from renewable sources should be well
positioned, including market leaders in France, Italy and Denmark.
As we look further out
into the green transition, providers of negative emissions technologies such as carbon
capture, utilization and storage are also likely to become more mainstream as countries
look to reach their net-zero targets.
