Merrill har analyseret aktiemarkedets anatomi under coronakrisen. Der er sket et voldsomt udskilningsløb mellem selskaber og sektorer. Kun fem af 11 sektorer er nået tilbage til niveauet fra februar. Mere end halvdelen af alle selskaber ligger 10 procent eller mere under februar-niveauet. Et beskedent mindretal ligger mindst 10 procent over niveauet, især high-tech selskaber. En tredjedel af S&P500-selskaberne ligger mindst 25 pct. under niveauet, især inden for finans og energi. Det store spørgsmål for investorerne er, om det er disse selskaber, der har det største potentiale, når økonomien normaliseres med en vaccine. Er der et potentiale for “taberne”?
Anatomy of the Coronavirus Equity Market Recovery
The market rebound of recent months has been rapid, but underneath the broad index it has also been uneven across sectors and industries.
As the market returned to its pre-crisis peak last month, only five of the 11 sectors (information technology, healthcare, communication services, consumer discretionary and materials) had regained their February high.
And of the remaining six sectors, five (energy, financials, utilities,
industrials and real estate) were still 10% or more below their prior peak.
Similarly, most individual constituents within the S&P 500 did not move to new highs with the overall market.
In total, only 160 of the 500 index holdings regained their precrisis peaks alongside the broad index last month, with the highest number (32) in the
information technology sector.
The median constituent was 10.7% below its February peak, and therefore more than half of all the companies in the index (255) remained 10%
or more below pre-crisis levels even as the broad market broke to new highs.
The market recovery has been led by a relatively small number of firms. Just 83 companies had risen to 10% or more above their pre-crisis peak (only a third of the number at the equivalent threshold below their peak) as the broad market regained its February high last month.
Less than 5% of index constituents (27) were 25% or more above their prior peak. And six holdings were up by 50% or more.
The most outsized gains have been concentrated in three sectors – information technology, healthcare and consumer discretionary. Of the six companies rising to 50% or more above their pre-crisis high, two were in each of these groups led by healthcare equipment, data processing, semiconductors and internet retail.
And of the 27 up by 25%-plus, more than half of the total (15) were spread across these three sectors.
A larger number of individual firms have been major laggards during the recovery of recent months. Close to one-third of holdings (149) in the S&P 500 were still 25% or more below their February peak (over five times the number at the equivalent threshold above their peak) as the index reached new highs last month.
The sectors making the biggest contribution to this category were financials (36) and energy (23), predominantly across regional banks and oil and gas exploration and production. And a total of 27 companies were 50% or more below their pre-crisis highs, over a third of which (10) were in energy alone (Exhibit 4).
