Opstramningen i den amerikanske pengepolitik bør vække bekymring for aktionærerne og det fremadskuende bæst, der hedder aktiemarkedet, skriver Merrill. Men banken ser trods alt optimistisk på aktiemarkedet – i hvert fald på kort sigt, og det skyldes bl.a. det meget høje forbrug. Der er en amerikansk forbrugskraft på 1,3 trillioner dollar ud af en samlet kapitalkraft på 4,5 trillioner (cash i virksomhederne samt statens udgifter). Men Merrills graf viser også, at forbrugernes opsparing sidst år var ekstremt høj som følge af pandemien, så folk blev hjemme og fik statstilskud. Nu er forbruget kommet ned på det normale niveau. Udover den nye infrastrukturpakke er der på længere sigt ikke udsigt til en stærkt stigende kapitalkraft, der kan stimulere aktiemarkedet.
The $4.5 Trillion Trifecta for 2022
The capital markets are at a pivotal point in the cycle—the Fed has begun to slow its
bond-buying program (tapering); it appears the first Fed rate hike has been pulled forward
to mid-2022 due to stronger-than-expected inflation readings; and the infrastructure
focused fiscal package grinding its way through Congress is expected to be the last fiscal
shot in the arm for the economy for some time.
All of the above, in theory, should be of concern for investors and the forward-looking,
discounting beast called the U.S. stock market. But we are more sanguine about near-term
market prospects. Why? Because while the U.S. fiscal and monetary spigots are poised to
turn next year (tighten), offsets will come via robust U.S. household balance sheets, flush
corporate coffers and massive amounts of unspent federal monies.
By our back-of-theenvelope estimates, the aggregate dry powder of U.S. consumers, U.S. corporations and
the U.S. federal government represents a $4.5 trillion Trifecta of future spending in 2022.
We break down the three elements of the Trifecta. Here we have:
The Consumer ($1.3 trillion)
Echoes from company earnings reports tell us about the strength and resilience of the
consumer through Q3 of this year. Simply put, U.S. household balance sheets are in the
best financial shape they’ve been in years, supported, in part, by an above-average savings
rate of 7.5%, which equates to some $1.3 trillion in future consumer purchasing power
(Exhibit 1).
Confidence begets spending. And to this point, consumer confidence as measured by the
Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index ticked up in October, following three
months of declines, and is corroborated by the latest retail sales figure (0.7% month-onmonth growth),
which surprised to the upside last reading.
And still, record U.S. household
net worth increased by $24.3 trillion in the 12 months ending Q2 2021, bringing wealth in
America to a total of $142 trillion. Against this backdrop, it’s little wonder that many U.S.
firms have been successful in passing through higher input costs to consumers, boosting
profit margins and contributing to better-than-expected Q3 earnings.
The effect of the coronavirus delta variant may have deferred some spending into next
year, especially as higher-income households’ spending patterns take longer to normalize.
The top fifth of earners (or households earning at least $120,000 a year) contribute nearly
40% of all spending and account for most of the buildup in bank deposits (absolute and
percent change) over the pandemic.2 The bottom 20% of households account for only 9%,
mostly geared toward necessities.
All in all, healthy household balance sheets remain a major support for the recovery and for
record-setting growth in consumer spending. Current levels of unprecedented wealth
supplementing wage growth will be fueling sustaining growth well into 2022 and be the
catalyst for upside earnings surprises in the out quarters.
