Merrill dykker ned i de voksende geopolitiske spændinger mellem USA og Kina og vurderer, hvordan det påvirker konkrete virksomheder og brancher i forsvarsindustien og dermed hvilke virkninger, det har for investorerne. Det er et tektonisk skifte, verden står over for, og det kan få betydelig virkning for erhvervslivet og dermed investorerne. Forsvarsindustrien verden over er blevet fordoblet de seneste ti år, og Merrill venter en stigende omsætning og indtjening i virksomheder, der har en førende rolle inden for højteknologien, kunstig intelligens og sundheds-teknologi, hvor det vedrører forsvaret. Men der bliver også kraftig efterspørgsel efter energi og råvarer fra kobber til kobolt, lithium og grafit. Derfor lyder rådet fra Merrill: Investér langsigtet i forsvarsindustrien. Det er en usikker verden, vi bevæger os ind i, og det går hurtigt, som Lenin sagde: “Der er årtier, hvor intet sker, og der er uger, hvor årtier sker.” Merrills analyse beskriver den akuelle udvikling med f.eks. nye forsvarsalliancer mod Kina, og så slutter analysen med implikationerne for investorerne.
Recent Geostrategic Chess Moves and the Implications for Investors
Nothing captures the seismic geostrategic chess moves of the past month more than Lenin’s quip that “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
On the geostrategic front, in other words, there have been plenty of moving parts as of late. Below, we highlight a few of these tectonic shifts, along with the potential implications for investors.
Implication for Investors
First and foremost, we believe the shifting tectonic geostrategic plates are a tailwind for leading U.S. defense and cyber security leaders. Consider staying long defense.
As Exhibit 4 shows, global defense spending is in a secular uptrend. Greater cohesion among the Quad and AUKUS will present market opportunities for many U.S. leaders in technology, artificial intelligence and health-tech.
We also remain constructive on the U.S. Energy sector (i.e., overweight relative to the S&P 500 benchmark) and remain long-term bulls on many commodities, ranging from cobalt, copper, to lithium and graphite.
Widening the lens, given the new geopolitics of the 21st century, we believe it is critical that investors regularly monitor and rebalance their portfolios according to their income needs and risk tolerance, with the understanding that the global geopolitical environment
is fluid and in flux, and prone to periodic pressure points that would create and sustain market volatility.
In this era, successful portfolio construction will likely be determined and dictated by owning high quality assets, being diversified and by being positioned/hedged in a more unsettled world.
