Den historiske udvikling viser, at en Demokratisk ledet regering i USA giver det bedste afkast for investorerne – markant højere end en Republikansk. Det viser en analyse, som Merrill har foretaget. De allerbedste afkast kommer, når det samme parti har præsidentposten og magten i begge kamre i Kongressen. For Demokraterne har det i efterkrigstiden givet et årligt afkast på 15 pct. mod 10 pct. for en Republikansk dominans. Spørgsmålet er derfor, hvor investorerne kaster pilene den 3. november?
The odds of a Democratic sweep are good but not inevitable. The
odds of a blue wave have steadily climbed this year, noticeably since the start of the pandemic and attendant decline in economic growth.
It appears that the House will likely to stay with the Democrats, while the odds makers believe Biden has a 60% chance of becoming the next president.
The real question mark pivots around control of the Senate: Republicans hold a 53-47 majority but are defending eight seats in the November elections that are considered competitive. As a recent Wall Street Journal editorial noted, the fight for the Senate is “the more important election.”
The markets prefer a divided government…or do they?
If the Republicans maintain control of the Senate and Biden wins, investors will hear a lot of chatter about how a split government is best for the markets.
Political gridlock, goes the fable, is preferred among investors since the government can do “less harm.” Reality, however, is a little more nuanced.
As noted in the CIO Investment Strategy Overview (July 2020), over the 18 presidential cycles since World War II, the lowest market returns have occurred under a divided government, with returns averaging just 8.6% under a Republican president and Democratic Congress.
Some of the strongest market returns have come when either party has had complete control of the government.
As a historical sidebar: There has never been a Democratic president, Democratic House and Republican Senate—so this time could be different.
Over the long term, Democratic presidents had been more positive
for equities than Republicans. And by a long shot. Many variables, of course, shape and influence equity prices over any presidential term, although taking the long view, average annual S&P 500 returns have been stronger under the Democrat controlling the White House versus the Republicans.
